Abbott Takes Narrow Lead in Late-Stage Texas Gubernatorial Poll

A ReconMR survey of 617 likely Texas voters conducted from October 5 to 8, 2026 shows Republican Governor Greg Abbott at 48 % support versus 47 % for Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa. The one-point gap falls within the poll’s reported margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points, so the result does not establish a definitive leader. The poll reflects a five-point swing since a September poll in which Hinojosa led Abbott 49 % to 45 %.

Newsweek

The survey employed weighting adjustments and design-effect calculations, resulting in the stated overall margin of error. With 617 respondents classified as “likely voters,” the sample size and methodology are typical for state-level polling, but the narrow margin underscores the statistical uncertainty inherent in the findings.

Newsweek

Abbott retains overwhelming support among Republican voters (92 % to 5 %). Among Democrats, Hinojosa leads 94 % to 2 %, and she also leads likely independents 57 % to 34 %. Rural areas favor Abbott by 25 points. In major metros, Hinojosa leads Austin 75 % to 22 %, Houston 52 % to 44 %, and San Antonio/South Texas 53 % to 42 %. Dallas-Fort Worth shows a tie at 48 % each.

Newsweek

Abbott’s job approval is negative (48 % approve, 51 % disapprove) and his favorability stands at 46 % favorable versus 50 % unfavorable. Hinojosa is viewed favorably by 44 % and unfavorably by 37 %, with 20 % of respondents saying they lack sufficient knowledge to form an opinion. Despite the close voting intention numbers, 62 % of surveyed voters expect Abbott to win, compared with 29 % who anticipate a Hinojosa victory.

Newsweek

With the race entering its concluding weeks, the poll’s tight margin and shifting dynamics suggest a competitive contest. The data indicate strong partisan polarization and divergent regional preferences, factors that could shape campaign strategies as both candidates seek to solidify support ahead of Election Day.

Newsweek