Older Americans Doubt 2027 Social Security COLA Will Keep Pace With Inflation

AARP’s latest survey of 1,023 adults, begun on September 17, found that 76 % of Americans aged 50 and older think a projected 3.5 % cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 will fall short of rising living costs. Among current beneficiaries, the share rises to 80 %. Across party lines, roughly three-quarters—73 % of Democrats, 70 % of independents and 69 % of Republicans—share the same view. Seventy-one percent say an increase of 5 %–8 % would be needed to cover everyday expenses.

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Social Security’s annual COLA is calculated by comparing the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the July-September period with the same period a year earlier. The adjustment is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point; if the index shows no rise, benefits receive no increase. Past adjustments have varied: 8.7 % in 2023, 3.2 % in 2024, 2.5 % in 2025 and 2.8 % in 2026.

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He notes that the average retired worker receives $2,087.52 per month, so a 3.5 % bump would add roughly $73 monthly ($876 annually) before any deductions. Schmidt also points out that Medicare Part B premiums—$185 in 2025, $202.90 in 2026 (a 9.7 % rise)—are not capped by the COLA, eroding net benefit gains.

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• Survey sample: 1,023 adults (AARP).

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• 76 % (50 + age group) and 80 % (current recipients) deem 3.5 % insufficient.

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• 71 % favor a 5 %–8 % increase.

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• CPI-W shows a 3.4 % rise in consumer prices over the 12 months ending August 2026; energy costs jumped 16.3 % in the same span.

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• 75.9 million people receive Social Security benefits, including retirees, spouses, survivors and children.

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Even a “largest increase in four years” may provide limited relief because many retirees rely heavily on Social Security while other income sources, such as corporate pensions, often lack inflation adjustments. Medicare Part B premium hikes, which are deducted directly from benefits, can further diminish the purchasing power of the COLA. The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the final 2027 COLA on October 14, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s CPI data.

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• “A 3.5 percent increase isn't a raise; it's reimbursement for inflation that has already occurred. And, even as the biggest increase in four years, it isn't a windfall for anyone,” — Geoffrey Schmidt, analyst and founder

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• “Over time, Social Security has not kept up with a retiree's personal inflation in many cases,” — Geoffrey Schmidt, analyst and founder

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• “The biggest disconnect is that Medicare Part B premiums don't come out until November, and these premium increases are not capped at the same rate as COLA,” — Geoffrey Schmidt, analyst and founder

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