Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Polls Show Shifting Fortunes for Eisenkot, Netanyahu and Far-Right Parties
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Poll Findings
A Channel 12 News poll released on October 12 projected the bloc led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot at 54 Knesset seats, unchanged from the previous survey, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was forecast at 49 seats. The poll gave the Arab parties a combined 13 seats and the Reservists party (led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha) four seats. Far-right ex-general Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael party was estimated at 1.8 % of the vote—equivalent to 0.0 seats—well below the 3.25 % electoral threshold.
A separate poll conducted by public broadcaster Kan (published the following week) showed Eisenkot’s bloc shrinking to 50 seats, a loss of two seats from the prior week, while Netanyahu’s bloc rose to 53 seats, gaining two. In this survey Amcha Yisrael crossed the threshold, earning an estimated four seats. The Arab parties remained steady at 13 seats, and the Reservists stayed at four seats.
Coalition Implications
Both polls indicate that parties opposed to Netanyahu would collectively hold 67 seats, short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government. However, the Eisenkot bloc includes parties that have publicly refused to cooperate with Arab parties, potentially preventing a parliamentary majority even if the bloc’s 54 seats were combined. Netanyahu’s bloc, bolstered by the inclusion of Amcha Yisrael in the Kan poll, appears closer to the 61-seat threshold, though coalition negotiations would still need to reconcile divergent policy positions among right-wing and religious parties.
Party Performance Highlights
- Yashar (Eisenkot’s party) remained the largest single party in both polls (23 seats in the Channel 12 poll, 22 seats in the Kan poll).
- Likud held 20 seats in the Channel 12 poll and slipped to 20 seats in the Kan poll after a brief decline.
- Together, led by former Prime Minister Benny Gantz, stayed at 13 seats in the Channel 12 poll and 12 seats in the Kan poll.
- Amcha Yisrael moved from 0 % (no seats) in the Channel 12 poll to 4 seats in the Kan poll, marking its first appearance above the threshold.
- Smaller parties such as Blue and White and the Haredi Public party remained below the threshold in both surveys (?0.9 % each).
Methodology
The Channel 12 poll surveyed 509 respondents online and by telephone, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, and was conducted by the Midgam Institute under Mano Geva. The Kan poll interviewed 552 respondents, reporting a 4.2 percentage-point margin of error, and was overseen by Kantar’s Dudu Hasid. Both polls used a combination of online and telephone methods to gauge voter intentions ahead of the upcoming election.