Australia’s Election-Year Push to Reverse Net Migration

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has pledged to reverse net overseas migration, targeting a reduction of 750,000 net migrants over three years and an annual ceiling below 130,000 thereafter. The Coalition’s opposition leader Angus Taylor has pledged to cut net migration to 100,000 a year in the first term, compared with the current nominal figure of 300,000 and the Albanese government’s target of 225,000. Both proposals would be the largest peacetime reductions in Australia’s immigration history.

The Age (Australia)

Australia has only experienced negative net migration during extraordinary periods—World Wars I and II, the early-1930s Great Depression, and the early 1890s depression—when economic collapse or conflict drove residents abroad. Economist Mark Cully, author of *Waves of Plenty*, notes that past cuts never aimed to push the permanent migration program to zero.

The Guardian

• Temporary-visa holders (excluding New Zealanders and visitor visas) have risen from 2.9 % of the population in 2011 to 6.6 % in 2026; including New Zealanders and tourists the share exceeds 10 %.

The Guardian

• One Nation’s modelling, based on Reserve Bank of Australia research, claims that cutting 766,000 temporary migrants over three years would reduce rental inflation by 6.5 %, saving the average renter $54 per week. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, says the forecasts are “not implausible,” but warns of broader economic hits.

The Guardian

• The economy’s recent 2.1 % growth to June was largely driven by population growth, accounting for roughly 75 % of that increase. A fertility rate of 1.48 children per woman suggests natural increase will remain low, making immigration a key driver of labour-force growth.

The Age (Australia)

Mark Cully argues that sustained negative net migration for three or more years would likely trigger a prolonged economic slump and has created an “underclass” of temporary residents lacking permanent-resident protections. Alan Gamlen, director of the Australian National University’s migration hub, stresses regulating the temporary-visa stream rather than “slamming on the brakes” to overall migration, warning that the proposed cuts could “crash the economy.”

The Guardian

The Albanese government plans a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028, down from 300,000 in 2024-25. Business groups say aged care, health care and agriculture rely heavily on temporary visa holders for flexible, low-cost labour.

The Guardian

A sharp reduction in temporary migrants would likely diminish export earnings from the university sector and reduce government revenue, according to Peter Tulip. The loss of a flexible labour pool could strain industries already facing skill shortages. Proponents argue fewer arrivals would ease housing demand and lower rental inflation, though analysts note housing costs are driven by multiple factors beyond migration numbers.

The Guardian

• “The economic effects are not what really is driving the migration debate.” — Alan Gamlen

The Guardian

If One Nation or the Coalition forms government, the promised caps would need legislation and immigration-policy adjustments. The Albanese target of 225,000 net migrants per year remains contingent on housing-completion rates and broader economic conditions. Economic modelling suggests a move toward negative population growth would risk a slowdown in GDP, with outcomes depending on policy implementation and business adaptation.

The Age (Australia)