Africa Shows Fastest Gains in Disaster Resilience, Yet Warning Gaps Remain

A new global study released in 2026 finds that African regions have recorded the quickest improvements in people’s ability to withstand and recover from disasters since 2023. The research, the fourth edition of the World Risk Poll, surveyed more than 143,000 adults in 140 countries during 2025 and calculated a Resilience Index (0-100) covering individual resilience, household preparedness, community support and societal conditions.

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The index shows a five-point rise in North Africa, a four-point increase in Southern Africa, and three-point gains in Eastern, Central and Western Africa. Countries highlighted for driving these improvements include Kenya, Egypt, Uganda, Algeria and Nigeria. The study attributes progress to expanding internet access, better household preparedness and stronger financial resilience.

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Despite overall gains, the study uncovers stark inequalities. In Central and West Africa, only 47 % of disaster-affected adults reported receiving any warning, compared with 64 % in low-income countries overall and 84 % in high-income nations. Moreover, fewer than half of warned adults in low- and lower-middle-income countries took protective action before a disaster struck, versus 71 % in high-income countries. Of the estimated 1.1 billion adults who experienced a disaster in the prior five years, about 220 million received no warning; 77 % of those un-warned owned a mobile phone (roughly 170 million people). Multi-channel alerts improve response rates: 37 % acted when warned through a single channel, 51 % when reached via two channels, and 64 % when three channels were used (e.g., text messages, television, social media).

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Nancy Hey, director of evidence and insight at the Lloyd’s Register Foundation’s Global Safety Evidence Centre, emphasized that a warning’s value depends on people’s capacity to act on it. Caroline Zastiral, acting global lead for disaster risk reduction and resilience, noted that effective warnings require trust, knowledge, time and resources. Dr Andrew Tupper, chief of the Early Warning Services Section at the World Meteorological Organisation, warned that an early-warning system is ineffective unless it empowers communities to respond.

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The Lloyd’s Register Foundation urges governments and disaster-management agencies to broaden warning coverage and invest more in household preparedness, highlighting mobile technology as a key opportunity to close existing gaps. Researchers also call for integrated, multi-channel alert systems to boost actionable responses, especially in low-income and Central/West African contexts.

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