Full Breakdown
Canada-India Trade Talks Accelerate Toward Year-End CEPA Deal
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Push to Seal CEPA by Year-End
Canada’s foreign minister Anita Anand announced that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India is slated to be concluded by the end of 2026, aligning with Ottawa’s strategy to double non-U.S. trade over the next decade.
Background & Context
Bilateral relations have rebounded after the 2023 diplomatic rupture over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. High-level engagements this month—including Anand’s visit to New Delhi (Oct 13-15) and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s meeting with her—signal a renewed “welcome transition.” A Team Canada trade mission led by International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu arrived on Oct 12 with roughly 300 business delegates, the largest Canadian delegation to India in more than three decades. The fifth round of CEPA negotiations concluded on Oct 9 in Ottawa, and both sides intend to finalize the pact before year-end.
Data & Statistics
- Canadian-Indian trade in goods and services stood at C$30.4 billion in 2025 (Canadian government).
- Officials aim to raise bilateral trade to C$70 billion annually by 2030.
- Reuters reported goods trade in 2025 at $10.9 billion, with Canadian exports to India down 26.5 % from 2024 and imports up 18.9 %.
- Hindustan Times Business noted an 8.23 % decline in bilateral goods trade to USD 7.95 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Official Statements & Responses
Sidhu highlighted the business community’s appetite for the agreement and reiterated the goal of moving trade from C$30 billion to C$70 billion. Prime Minister Mark Carney described the negotiations as “exceptionally important” and expressed optimism about Modi’s planned December visit to Canada as a venue for signing. Modi’s post-call statement framed the partnership as contributing to a “more stable and prosperous world.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “The Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement with India is part of our trade diversification strategy, and yes, we aim to conclude it by the end of the year,” — Anita Anand
- “The leaders have set an ambitious target to go from C$30 billion to C$70 billion,” — Maninder Sidhu
- “Confident that the CEPA will provide fresh momentum to bilateral trade and strengthen our economic partnership for shared prosperity,” — Piyush Goyal
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Trade figures differ: Reuters cites $10.9 billion in goods trade for 2025, while The Hindu Business Line records USD 7.95 billion for 2025-26 after an 8.23 % decline. Neither source provides a detailed breakdown of services trade or the specific tariff reductions expected under CEPA, leaving the precise economic impact uncertain.
What’s Next
- Modi is scheduled to travel to Canada in December, a likely setting for signing the CEPA.
- Prime Minister Carney is in talks to attend India’s Republic Day celebrations in January as chief guest, potentially reinforcing the partnership.
- Ongoing dialogues on security, cyber-security, and economic security are slated for the coming months, building on the Oct 6-7 security talks between National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Canada’s senior advisor David Morrison.
