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September CPI Rises 3.7% as Fed Hike Odds Jump

By Drooid · Oct 15, 2026, 3:29 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

Labor Dept Reports CPI

The U.S. Labor Department reported September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year.
Gasoline prices jumped about $1.35 per gallon, a 9% increase in September.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, edged higher, prompting expectations of another rate hike.
Mortgage rates rose above 7.5%, intensifying financial strain for households.
Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will increase 3.6% in January, about $75 monthly.

Summary

CME FedWatch Raises Odds

CME FedWatch odds for an October Federal Reserve hike rose to 37% from 22%.
MBA projects average mortgage rates at 7.3% in Q4 and around 7% in 2027.
Only 11% of BCEI panelists expect an October hike while 84% anticipate a December action.
Analysts warn a “lock-in effect” could curb housing inventory as rates stay high.

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Labor Dept Reports CPI

The U.S. Labor Department reported September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year.
Gasoline prices jumped about $1.35 per gallon, a 9% increase in September.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, edged higher, prompting expectations of another rate hike.
Mortgage rates rose above 7.5%, intensifying financial strain for households.
Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will increase 3.6% in January, about $75 monthly.

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