Full Breakdown
Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Brazil Runoff Polls: Race Tightens Ahead of Oct 25 Vote
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Polls Show Flavio Bolsonaro Slightly Ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
A Quaest poll released on Oct 14 surveyed 2,154 respondents (Oct 10-13) and gave Flavio Bolsonaro 46% versus Lula’s 44%. The same day, Datafolha reported Bolsonaro 49% and Lula 45%; a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll (Oct 10-12) found Bolsonaro 48% and Lula 45%. All three describe the race as a technical tie.
Background & Context: First-Round Results and Historical Odds
In the first round on Oct 4, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party secured 47.03% of valid votes, narrowly ahead of Lula’s 45.16%. Voter abstention reached 21.08%—about 33 million eligible voters stayed home, the highest non-participation rate since 1998. No candidate who finished second in the first round has ever won the runoff since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989.
Data & Statistics
- Poll margins: ±2 percentage points.
- First-round gap: 1.87 points, the narrowest on record.
- Abstention: 21 % of eligible voters (?33 million).
- Congressional outlook: Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party projected to hold roughly a quarter of seats in the Chamber and become the largest bloc in the Senate, approaching an absolute majority with allied right-wing lawmakers.
Official Statements & Responses
President Lula, at a São Paulo rally on Oct 11, urged supporters to reach out to voters who skipped the first round: “We have an obligation to talk to people who think they no longer have the right to vote.”
Flavio Bolsonaro announced plans to reform the constitution, proposing to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 and to end presidential re-elections, citing Argentine President Javier Milei as a model for tax and bureaucracy cuts.
Criticism & Opposition
Political scientist Cláudio Couto warned, “It is possible that Lula could make a comeback, but it’s very difficult.” Analyst De Souza noted, “There has never been such a narrow margin between the first and the second place. And this gives Lula’s voters hope.”
Ramirez warned that a Bolsonaro victory would “crown the triumph of the far right and pave the way for them to implement all the changes they desire, while the left will be in the minority in the next legislature.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The three polls differ modestly in Bolsonaro’s lead: Quaest (46 % vs 44 %), Datafolha (49 % vs 45 %), BTG Pactual/Nexus (48 % vs 45 %). All are within margins of error, leaving the precise state of the race uncertain. Undecided voters constitute 1 % of respondents across surveys.
What’s Next
The runoff is scheduled for Oct 25. Both campaigns are intensifying outreach to the roughly 33 million non-voters from the first round, with Lula’s team focusing on social-media appeals and Bolsonaro consolidating support among right-leaning governors and mayors. The outcome will determine whether Brazil’s Congress remains dominated by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party bloc or shifts toward a more fragmented legislature under Lula.
