Full Breakdown
Oklahoma Governor Race Tightens as Cross Timbers Poll Shows Statistical Tie
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Poll Indicates Near-Deadlock Between Mike Mazzei and Cyndi Munson
Cross Timbers Poll, a nonpartisan citizen-run project, released its second 2026 gubernatorial survey showing Republican Mike Mazzei at 39 % and Democrat Cyndi Munson at 36 % among likely voters. Among all registered voters, Mazzei held 33 % to Munson’s 30 %. Both gaps fall within the poll’s credibility intervals—±15 percentage points for likely voters and ±12 points for registered voters—so the race is statistically tied. The survey also recorded 32 % of registered voters and 17 % of likely voters as undecided three weeks before the November 3 election.
Background & Context
Mike Mazzei served 12 years in the Oklahoma Senate, chaired the Senate Finance Committee, and was appointed state Secretary of Budget in 2018. He secured the Republican nomination by winning the runoff with 50.3 % of the vote, aided by a late endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Cyndi Munson, the first Asian-American woman elected to the Oklahoma Legislature, is the House Minority Leader and has a background in nonprofit leadership. Both candidates face three independent contenders: Jerry Griffin, Robert E. Brooks Sr., and Orlando Lynn Bush.
Data & Statistics
- Sample size: 128 registered voters who opted in between October 7 and October 12.
- Credibility intervals: ±15 points (likely voters), ±12 points (registered voters).
- Undecided voters: 32 % of registered voters; 17 % of likely voters.
- Lean among undecided likely voters: 50 % favor Mazzei, 40 % favor Munson, 10 % favor an independent.
- Third-party support among likely voters: Jerry Griffin 7 %, Robert E. Brooks Sr. 1 %, Orlando Lynn Bush < 1 %.
- Party unity: 55 % of registered Republicans back Mazzei, 31 % remain undecided; 87 % of registered Democrats back Munson.
- Governor Kevin Stitt approval: 32 % approve, 55 % disapprove.
- President Donald Trump approval in Oklahoma: 41 % approve, 58 % disapprove.
Official Statements & Responses
He emphasized Munson’s message on public-school funding, insurance reform, and lowering family costs.
Criticism & Opposition
The Munson campaign’s skepticism about the poll’s methodology represents the primary criticism of the survey’s reliability. While the pollster clarified that “likely voters” are respondents who have voted in recent elections or are closely following the race, the campaign’s doubts highlight ongoing concerns about small sample sizes and online opt-in panels.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Roger Stone is one of many political advisers and teammates that we have going back months and months and months. And, of course, it's helpful to have someone on your team that's aware of what's going on in Washington, D.C. And the aspects of a Trump agenda and how they fit with an Oklahoma agenda.” — Republican Mike Mazzei, spokeswoman
What’s Next
Oklahoma voters will cast ballots on November 3, as scheduled by the State Election Board, to decide the governor’s race alongside other federal and state contests.