Full Breakdown
Israel’s October 27 Election and Its Potential Ripple Across Africa
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Israel will hold a parliamentary election on October 27. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud bloc nor the opposition bloc of Jewish-led parties is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, meaning prolonged coalition negotiations are expected. The incoming government’s policy toward Gaza and the Palestinian issue is seen as a key factor that could shape Israel’s diplomatic, security and commercial ties with African states.
Recent Diplomatic Moves Shaping Africa-Israel Relations
Since the October 7 2023 attacks, the Gaza war has intensified scrutiny of Israel’s African partnerships. South Africa lodged a case at the International Court of Justice alleging violations of the 1948 Genocide Convention and, in November 2023, its National Assembly adopted a motion urging the closure of the Israeli embassy—though the motion has not been enacted. Morocco restored relations in 2020 and, on September 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita met in New York, pledging to upgrade missions to embassies, finalize investment-protection and double-taxation agreements by year-end, and expand airline links.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on December 26 sparked protests; the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project recorded 110 demonstrations linked to the decision, of which only seven were supportive.
Official Statements & Government Positions
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared that his country will not accept any Israeli presence “under any circumstances,” accusing Israel of planning a naval base in Berbera. South Africa’s motion reflects parliamentary opposition but has not translated into diplomatic action. Morocco continues to pursue closer ties despite public demonstrations, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi met Israeli leaders on August 31–September 1, reviewing memoranda of understanding signed on July 27 and exploring further investment, especially along the Lobito Corridor.
Data on Public Opposition
ACLED’s tally of 110 demonstrations linked to the Somaliland recognition—only seven in support—illustrates the scale of popular resistance to certain Israeli diplomatic initiatives across the continent.
Outlook and Strategic Considerations
Analysts note that Africa’s heterogeneous foreign-policy landscape means each state will weigh security, trade and public sentiment differently.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The October 27 election will therefore be pivotal, as a new government’s stance on the Palestinian cause will shape how far Africa cooperates on agriculture, trade, security and technology, guided by self-determination and international law as well as bilateral interests,” — Johnson
- “Depending on its approach, the next Israeli government could therefore either deepen strategic cooperation in Morocco, Sudan and the Red Sea, or face a legitimacy problem if it continues policies seen as tied to the Gaza war, widening the gap between state-level cooperation and public sentiment,” — Hossamaldeen Ibrahim
- “If we trace the stance South Africa took, it goes back to the apartheid era, when Israel backed the apartheid regime and refused to support the struggle against the minority government. This historical context is important for understanding South Africa-Israel relations today,” — Iwebunor Okwechime, professor