Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Talarico Leads Fundraising While Paxton Leans on Trump Endorsement
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Contest Overview
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas in the 2026 midterms. The race, open after Paxton defeated former Sen. John Cornyn in a May primary runoff, pits a well-funded Democrat against a Republican backed by former President Donald Trump. Early voting begins October 19, and Election Day is November 3.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994 and has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. A Talarico victory would flip a traditionally safe Republican seat and could affect the Senate majority in President Trump’s final two years in office.
Timeline
- July 13, 2026: Talarico speaks at a “Frontera Tour” rally in Eagle Pass.
- September 24: Paxton records a donor-lobbyist meeting saying, “Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
- September 30: The New York Times publishes the leaked audio.
- October 1: Trump endorses Paxton at a Denton truck-plant event, calling him “a little bit controversial.”
- October 8-11: Marist poll shows Talarico leading Paxton.
- October 12: Security-camera footage released by Talarico’s campaign shows the candidate at his Austin home from Oct 1 to Oct 8.
- October 19 (scheduled): Early voting begins.
- November 3 (scheduled): General election.
Official Statements & Responses
Trump noted he has “no regrets” about backing Paxton despite the leaked audio. Paxton has framed Talarico’s two-week absence as a liability, urging voters to consider the “massive difference” between a Paxton victory and a Talarico win.
Talarico’s campaign emphasized grassroots support, saying “grassroots contributors from across Texas are coming together to end billionaire control over our politics and bring down costs for working families.” The campaign also released security footage to counter rumors of treatment at an Ohio mental-health facility.
Vice President JD Vance rallied in Tyler, praising Paxton’s lawsuits against technology and pharmaceutical firms and announcing the use of the Defense Production Act to expand an East Texas refinery, positioning the race as a defense of “freedom and opportunity.”
On-the-Ground Reports
Talarico told supporters he began feeling ill a few days before his absence and was diagnosed with the flu at urgent care in Dallas. After a week at home, he reappeared at the Austin City Limits Music Festival and resumed campaign events in San Antonio and Dallas.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Health vs. Conspiracy: Republican operatives and Trump suggested the disappearance might hide something more serious, while the candidate’s team and security footage confirm he was home recovering from the flu. The Lindner Center of Hope in Ohio publicly denied any treatment of Talarico.
- Polling Variance: Different polls show Talarico ahead by 2-6 points, all within error ranges. Paxton’s campaign rejects all pre-election polling as irrelevant.
What’s Next
Early voting opens October 19, giving both campaigns a final window to mobilize supporters. With the election set for November 3, the race remains a focal point for national parties, super-PAC spending, and the broader battle for Senate control.