Full Breakdown
Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Takes Lead in Latest Israeli Election Poll
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Poll Overview
A poll released by Zman Yisrael on Thursday shows the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. The survey, conducted on October 14-15, projects the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats and the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 49 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
Seat Projections by Party
The poll assigns Yashar 26 seats, up from 20 in the previous week, while Likud is projected at 20 seats. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is shown with 11 seats, and Yisrael Beytenu with nine. Four parties—Shas, United Torah Judaism, the left-wing Democrats, and the Joint List—each receive eight seats. Far-right, pro-Netanyahu parties Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism are projected at seven and six seats respectively. The Arab-led Ra’am would obtain five seats, and the non-aligned Reservists four.
Two parties fall below the 3.25 % electoral threshold: People of Israel at 2.8 % and centrist Blue and White at 1.2 %.
Methodology and Reliability
The October 14-15 poll was carried out by Yossi Tatika of Tatika Research & Media with the Adgenda panel, sampling 500 respondents and reporting a margin of error of ±4.4 %. A separate Channel 13 poll, published a day later, used a larger sample of 1,018 respondents with a 3.1 % margin of error and gave Netanyahu’s bloc 51 seats versus 50 for Eisenkot’s bloc. Both surveys note the inherent volatility of horse-race polling in the months before the election.
Implications for the October 27 Election
With neither bloc projected to reach a governing majority, coalition negotiations will be pivotal after the scheduled October 27 vote. The uncertainty surrounding People of Israel’s ability to cross the threshold adds further complexity, as its presence could siphon votes from larger right-wing parties and affect the balance of power.
What Comes Next
Analysts will watch the final weeks of the campaign for shifts in voter sentiment, especially among smaller parties hovering near the threshold, before parties begin formal coalition talks following the October 27 election.