Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race 2026: Talarico vs. Paxton – Money, Momentum, and Misinformation
By Drooid · · How we work
The Contest at a Glance
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas in the 2026 midterms. The winner will help determine which party controls the Senate. Talarico seeks to become the first Democrat to win a statewide Texas race since 1994. Paxton carries the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and faces a history of impeachment and fraud allegations.
Funding Frenzy
- Talarico’s campaign reported raising $64 million in the July-September quarter and more than $134 million since launching the bid (FEC filing).
- Paxton’s campaign and two affiliated committees reported $18 million raised in the same quarter (FEC filing).
- Outside Republican groups have spent over $175 million supporting Paxton or attacking Talarico (AdImpact).
- Billionaire Elon Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which then gave $158 million to a Texas PAC backing Paxton and $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC (federal filings).
- Total political advertising in the race has topped $500 million (AdImpact).
Campaign Narratives
Talarico frames the contest as a fight against “billionaire control” and rising living costs, noting that 97 % of contributions are $100 or less. Paxton’s team highlights his record as attorney general and positions him as a defender of Texas industry against federal climate regulations.
Voices from the Field
Voters at rallies echo the candidates’ themes. Retired judge Glen Whitley praised Talarico’s willingness to take questions from all sides.
Rumors, Reality, and Unanswered Questions
During a nine-day absence in early October, social-media posts claimed Talarico was being treated at a mental-health facility in Ohio. The facility denied any treatment, and Talarico’s spokesperson said he was recovering from the flu at home. The episode shows how misinformation can spread rapidly in a high-stakes race, though no official investigation has confirmed the rumor.
Timeline of Key Events
- July 13, 2026 – Talarico speaks at a “Frontera Tour” rally in Eagle Pass.
- September 9, 2026 – Talarico calls for diplomatic leverage to protect Palestinians.
- October 14, 2026 – Talarico addresses his flu-related absence at a CNN/Jubilee town hall.
- October 19, 2026 – Early voting begins (scheduled).
- November 3, 2026 – Election Day (scheduled).
What’s Next
Early voting opens on October 19, giving both campaigns a final window to mobilize supporters. The candidates have exchanged debate challenges, but Paxton has not confirmed participation. The race will be decided on November 3, when turnout in urban, suburban, and rural precincts will likely determine which party holds the Senate majority.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Grassroots contributors from across Texas are coming together to end billionaire control over our politics and bring down costs for working families,” — James Talarico, spokesperson
- “ "I got the flu, and I'm feeling much better, and I'm glad I had a chance to recover," Talarico said in a Sunday interview with the NBC affiliate in Dallas-Fort Worth.” — James Talarico, spokesperson
- “I will always use every available avenue to block Biden’s extremist climate agenda, especially when federal policy undermines Texas industry and destroys Texas jobs,” — Ken Paxton, Republican state attorney