Full Breakdown
Democratic Challenger Eliott Rodriguez Takes Aim at Rep. María Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th District
By Drooid · · How we work
The Tight Race in Florida’s 27th District
The U.S. House contest for Florida’s 27th Congressional District—covering Miami, Coral Gables, Kendall, Key Biscayne and Pinecrest and about 74 percent Hispanic—has become a focal point for national Democrats. Incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar, who flipped the seat in 2020 with former President Donald Trump’s backing, faces former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, a son of Cuban immigrants who has lived in the district since 1968. The race is projected to be decided by only a few hundred votes, according to the Rodriguez campaign’s email to Newsweek.
Recent Polls and Betting Markets
A Tulchin Research poll of 600 likely voters, commissioned by the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and conducted September 8-13, gave Salazar a 47 percent to 46 percent lead. An earlier Bendixen & Amandi International poll, commissioned by Rodriguez’s campaign and run August 25-30, showed the contest tied at 45 percent each. Prediction-market odds have also narrowed: Polymarket listed an 82 percent chance for Salazar on September 1, while Kalshi gave her a 78 percent chance; both platforms reduced her odds to roughly 64-66 percent by late September.
Campaign Funding and Strategic Moves
Federal Election Commission filings dated July 29 indicate Salazar holds about $2.26 million in cash, far exceeding Rodriguez’s roughly $325,000. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red-to-Blue program has added Rodriguez to its top-tier pickup list, providing fundraising, staff and strategic support. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is scheduled to appear with Rodriguez in Miami on a Friday, emphasizing the race’s potential to tip the House balance.
Official Statements and Campaign Rhetoric
Rodriguez’s campaign argues the race could swing on “the next few hundred votes,” while Salazar has framed recent immigration enforcement—over 41,300 ICE arrests in her district since Trump’s return to office—as a political misstep, calling for a review after the detention of Venezuelan journalist Luis Galeano. Trump publicly defended Salazar, stating she would not have won without his endorsement. Rodriguez has labeled Salazar’s proposed Dignity Act, which would grant work status to undocumented immigrants without criminal records, the “Indignity Act,” and described her criticism of Trump as a “desperate political stunt.”
Implications for House Control
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to retake the House. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the 27th District from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican,” and its latest projection anticipates a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats nationwide. Decision Desk HQ’s early-October model gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the chamber. A Democratic victory in this district would provide a symbolic win over the Hispanic-voter shift that helped Trump in 2024 and could help offset Republican gains from upcoming redistricting. The race will be decided on November 3.