Full Breakdown
Iran Amplifies War-Cost Narrative to U.S. Public Ahead of November Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Information Campaign Targeting Americans
Since the war began on February 28, Iranian officials have used English-language posts and open letters to stress the economic fallout for the United States. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf shared inflation data and a collage of negative U.S. headlines, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sent a September 29 letter accusing President Donald Trump of lying about the war’s cost. Trump, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, dismissed the relevance of the upcoming elections to his Iran policy.
Background & Context
Iran’s disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has driven global energy prices upward. The United States now faces diesel at $6.33 per gallon and gasoline at $4.33 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Iranian messaging links these spikes to the war, noting that rising fuel costs have contributed to overall inflation, which Ghalibaf highlighted as 3.7 %.
Data & Statistics
- Diesel: $6.33 / gal (American Automobile Association)
- Gasoline: $4.33 / gal (American Automobile Association)
- U.S. inflation: 3.7 % (figure shared by Ghalibaf)
- Energy price surge: Attributed to Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since February 28
Official Statements & Responses
- Ghalibaf wrote to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, urging him to “play the percentages” regarding inflation and cost-of-living increases.
- Bessent responded that he “represents ‘the house,’” likening the U.S. economy to a casino while discussing the national debt and bond market.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases,” — Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
Why It Matters / Impact
Iran’s campaign seeks to raise the political cost of the war for U.S. voters ahead of the November 3 legislative elections. Analysts note that a Democratic win could curb funding for the military campaign, while a Republican victory might allow Trump to maintain pressure on Iran. Tehran’s messaging functions as an information-war tool aimed at influencing American public opinion and electoral outcomes.
What’s Next
President Trump has indicated that after the November 3 elections he could either negotiate a deal with Iran or resume hostilities, tying any decision to the election result.
