Full Breakdown
Surge in Foreign Online Influence Ahead of Alberta Referendum
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Researchers at the University of Regina’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Conflict have been monitoring online activity surrounding Alberta’s upcoming referendum on a binding independence vote. The project, originally built to track Russian disinformation about the Ukraine invasion, expanded in early 2024 to include Canadian political debates after analysts noticed coordinated messaging aimed at Albertan voters. Premier Danielle Smith has acknowledged foreign influence campaigns targeting the vote, calling the activity “concerning” but not criminal.
Data & Statistics
Since July, roughly 40,000 online items per month have been linked to foreign influence. About 80 % of the activity was attributed to Russian bots and content farms, while 20 % originated from U.S. sources such as podcasters and right-wing pundits. In late September the U.S. share rose to 24 % and the Russian share fell to 76 %. Polling cited by Global News shows seven-in-ten Albertans intend to vote against separation, whereas an online poll on X.com displayed an 80 % pro-independence sentiment among self-selected participants.
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, speaking on *The Really Big Show* podcast, said the United States is “closely watching Canadian activities” for interference ahead of the U.S.
On-the-Ground Reports: AI-Generated Misinformation
Local analysts flagged AI-generated videos that impersonated University of Alberta students advocating for separation. One such video displayed visual glitches—trees changing colour and the provincial flag morphing—signalling deep-fake manipulation. Although the clip was removed, similar content persists. Stephanie Husby, Chair of Science and Technology at Norquest College, cautioned that AI responses now appear by default in search results, urging Albertans to verify information against official election sites. Technology analyst Carmi Levy described the practice as “subterfuge” that seeks to sway votes through fabricated personal testimonies.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
A viral claim linked Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres to a sudden drop in “inauthentic” separatist accounts. Researchers from McGill University’s Media Ecosystem Observatory found no measurable change in either pro- or anti-separatist activity, indicating the narrative was unsubstantiated. They noted a perception gap: online separatist communities appear larger than their actual electoral weight, creating distrust among both supporters and opponents of independence.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This stuff is very opportunistic. So they will find whatever is most controversial and pour energy into that,” — Dr. McQuinn, co-director of the centre
- “It appears that some of this – from our perspective, in the way we view our elections – could be inferred to be election interference,” — Mr. Hoekstra, ambassador
What’s Next
Advance polling for the referendum concludes on Saturday, with the vote scheduled for the following Monday. Election officials have reminded voters to consult the official Elections Alberta website for polling locations and to remain skeptical of unauthenticated online content. Analysts expect a continued surge in foreign-origin narratives in the final days before the ballot, particularly around claims of voter fraud and the legitimacy of any eventual result.