Full Breakdown
North Korea Tests Two Submarine-Launched Strategic Cruise Missiles
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Test Overview
On October 14, North Korean state media reported that the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) test-fired two submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles into the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Images released by KCNA showed one missile rising vertically from the water and another emerging at a 45-degree angle.
Context and Recent Tensions
The test follows a series of weapons launches in early October, including ballistic missile firings on October 12 and a hypersonic intermediate-range missile test on October 3. It also comes after a September 21 land-mine explosion in the Demilitarised Zone that injured three South Korean soldiers. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced its annual Hoguk exercise for late October.
Purpose and Reported Capabilities
The agency labeled the missiles “strategic,” which analysts interpret as an implication of potential nuclear capability, though no warhead details were disclosed.
Observations by South Korea
South Korea’s JCS confirmed continuous tracking of the missiles from pre-launch through cruise and terminal phases. A spokesperson reported that one missile was launched from a vertical launch system while the other was fired through a torpedo tube. Analysts noted that the photographs resembled the Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine, a modified diesel-powered vessel unveiled in September 2023, but independent verification of the launch platform was not available.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Launch platform: KCNA’s images show a surfaced submarine, yet the agency did not specify whether the missiles were fired from an operational submarine or a purpose-built test platform.
- Missile types: The specific models were not named. South Korean analysts have suggested the longer-range Hwasal-2 and the shorter-range Pulhwasal-3-31, the latter previously tested in January 2024. No official confirmation of these designations was provided.
- Nuclear capability: The “strategic” label hints at possible nuclear payloads, but KCNA offered no explicit statement on warhead type, and no external source has verified nuclear armament.
Official Statements & Responses
- KCNA: Emphasized that the test was a routine readiness inspection and asserted that the launches posed no threat to neighboring states.
- South Korea’s JCS: Stated that the missiles were detected and monitored, describing the launch methods and confirming that the activity did not violate any international agreements.
- U.S. Forces Korea: Did not comment on the cruise-missile test, though earlier in the month it had confirmed monitoring of North Korean ballistic missile launches.
Data & Statistics
- The January 2024 Pulhwasal-3-31 test recorded flight durations of 7,421 seconds and 7,445 seconds, slightly over two hours each, before striking an island target in the Sea of Japan.
- The October 14 test involved two launch angles—vertical and 45-degree—demonstrating different trajectory profiles that affect detection and interception.
Why It Matters
Launching cruise missiles from submarines expands North Korea’s options for low-altitude, hard-to-detect strikes, potentially complicating regional missile-defence systems. If the missiles are nuclear-capable, they would add a sea-based second-strike capability, altering the strategic calculus for South Korea, the United States and Japan.
Verbatim Quotes
- “North Korea appears to be conducting combat system tests as part of efforts to make its submarine operational,” — Shin Jong-woo, secretary general of the Korea Defense Security Forum
- “If two types of SLCMs with different ranges, speeds and approach directions are launched from a submarine at staggered intervals, air defense systems would have to engage targets arriving from different directions at different times, making interception harder,” — Hong Min