Full Breakdown
Super El Niño Triggers Floods Across Continents, Threatening Millions
By Drooid · · How we work
Event Overview
Heavy rains linked to the current “super” El Niño have swollen the Paraná, Uruguay and Iguazú rivers, flooding towns in northeastern Argentina, southern Paraguay and western Uruguay. In Ituzaingó, the Paraná River rose to 4.7 m, prompting evacuations and forcing ranchers to move cattle to higher ground. In Paraguay’s Ayolas, more than 2,000 residents fled as the river hit its highest level in over four decades.
In Somalia’s capital, mid-September rains inundated parts of Mogadishu, damaging health facilities and displacing families. In Puntland, the village of Godob-yar experienced flash flooding that left roads impassable.
Along the U.S. West Coast, scientists warn that a marine heat wave, a Kelvin wave and king tides could add up to 18 inches of water along California’s shoreline this winter.
Background & Context
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern in which unusually warm Pacific waters alter global weather, producing drought in some regions and severe flooding in others. The present event is described by climate experts as a “super” El Niño, projected to rank among the strongest on record and to peak in the second half of 2026 through early 2027. It is already amplifying storm activity in Mexico, drought risk in Southeast Asia, and flood risk in South America, East Africa and the U.S. West Coast.
Data & Statistics
- Paraná River level: 4.7 m (15.4 ft) in Ituzaingó.
- Evacuations in Paraguay: >2,000 people in Ayolas.
- IRC modeling: up to 2.6 million Somalis could face catastrophic flooding in a worst-case scenario.
- Humanitarian need in Somalia: 4.8 million people require urgent aid.
- Projected additional acute food insecurity by end-2027: 49 million people, raising the total to 274 million across 45 countries.
- Marine heat wave has temporarily raised sea level off California by ~6 inches; El Niño could add another 6-12 inches, with king tides contributing up to 12 inches more.
On-the-Ground Reports
In Corrientes province, ranchers guided herds across flooded pastures, while calves struggled against currents thick with floating river plants. Residents of Godob-yar described standing water inside homes, collapsed toilets and sewage mixing with floodwater, raising fears of cholera and other water-borne diseases.
Official Statements & Responses
Mayor Carlos Duarte told a local radio station that the river in Ayolas had reached its highest level in more than four decades and could continue to rise.
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) outlined its anticipatory action model, delivering cash to at-risk families before disasters strike to purchase food, water and protection for homes, crops and livestock.
In Uruguay, operators of the Salto Grande hydroelectric dam have gradually opened gates to relieve the rising Uruguay River, mitigating downstream flooding.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Exact numbers of displaced families and property damage in Godob-yar remain unconfirmed, and official assessments are pending. Projections of flood risk in California rely on multiple overlapping factors that have not yet manifested as widespread inundation, leaving uncertainty about timing and scale.
What’s Next
Forecasters expect additional heavy rain across the Paraná basin in the coming weeks, prompting further evacuations and cattle relocations. The IRC is scaling up cash-based assistance and early-warning systems ahead of the El Niño peak. Climate scientists caution that the combination of El Niño, marine heat waves and astronomical tides could produce unprecedented coastal flooding in California this winter, urging municipalities to implement nature-based solutions such as dune and marsh restoration. Continued monitoring and rapid humanitarian response will be essential to mitigate the expanding human and economic toll of this super El Niño event.