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OECD chief warns Australian parties that populist shortcuts won’t curb cost-of-living pressures
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Cormann’s warning against populist economic policies
Mathias Cormann – former Australian finance minister and current secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – is set to address the Centre for Independent Studies on a Saturday night. In that speech he cautions the nation’s major parties not to emulate populist measures such as migration caps, tariffs or state-bank proposals. Cormann argues that only sustained gains in productivity can reliably lower housing costs, energy bills and real wages over the long term.
Political context and populist surge
The warning comes as One Nation, a party built on an anti-immigration platform, has risen sharply since the 2025 federal election. The Guardian Essential poll cited in the source records One Nation’s primary-vote share at 25%, overtaking the Coalition’s 22%. Public frustration over rising energy prices, unaffordable housing and stagnant real incomes has fueled this momentum, prompting some commentators to suggest that mainstream parties might be tempted to adopt similar rhetoric.
Evidence on migration and productivity
Cormann points to OECD research that compares Australian regions with differing migrant inflows. The analysis finds that areas receiving more migrants experienced faster employment growth among Australian-born workers, with no measurable impact on their wages. He uses this data to argue that “arbitrary migration caps” do not improve labour-market outcomes and that the composition of migration, rather than its volume, should be the focus of policy.
Implications for Australia’s cost of living
The OECD chief also highlights demographic pressures: without continued migration, Australia’s working-age population would shrink as the share of older residents rises, straining health, aged-care and defence spending. He warns that tariffs – recently advocated by both the former U.S. president Donald Trump and One Nation – would likely raise costs for farmers, miners and builders without easing household expenses. Cormann’s central message is that solving the underlying housing, energy and wage issues through productivity growth is the only way to diminish the appeal of populist proposals.