Full Breakdown
Accelerating Melt of Antarctica’s “Doomsday” Glacier
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
New research published in *Nature Communications* shows that the Thwaites glacier in West Antarctica is losing ice faster than previously estimated. Warm ocean water is intruding beneath the glacier’s grounding line, melting its core and accelerating mass loss. Lead author Mattia Poinelli, a project scientist at UCLA, said the glacier could contribute up to 1.2 inches (30 mm) of global sea-level rise by 2100 even if global warming does not intensify further. The study also introduced a broader “grounding zone” concept, describing a tidal-pumping process that allows seawater to reach deep under the ice and promote vigorous melting.
Data & Statistics
- Since 2000, studies calculate that Thwaites has shed more than 1,000 billion tonnes of ice and continues to lose about 50 billion tonnes per year.
- The glacier currently accounts for roughly four percent of total global sea-level rise.
- Researchers estimate a 60 percent probability that Thwaites will “unpin” from the stabilising Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century.
- Separate modeling by the British Antarctic Survey projects continued ice loss for at least the next 150 years, even under scenarios of extreme ocean cooling.
- Ocean temperatures adjacent to Thwaites are projected to rise at three times the historical rate throughout the 21st century.
Why It Matters
Thwaites spans an area comparable to Senegal (about 192,000 sq km) and acts as a buttress for the larger West Antarctic ice sheet. Its collapse could trigger a cascade of ice-sheet destabilisation, potentially raising global sea levels by several metres and threatening coastal cities worldwide. While the glacier’s full disintegration is not expected for many decades or centuries, the accelerated melt underscores the urgency of limiting ocean warming, as each fraction of a degree influences the rate of ice loss.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are the biggest contributors to sea-level rise in Antarctica at the moment, and they’re losing ice at an increasing rate,” — Rosie Williams, British Antarctic Survey.
- “But with Thwaites glacier, we found something really different,” — Rosie Williams, British Antarctic Survey.
- “Every fraction of a degree really matters for trying to preserve these glaciers into the future, which matters for all of us, in terms of sea-level rise globally,” — Rosie Williams, British Antarctic Survey.
- “We haven’t crossed the point of no return,” — Mathieu Morlighem, Dartmouth College.
