Full Breakdown
Conservatives Overtake Reform UK in Latest Polls
By Drooid · · How we work
Background: Shifting Right-Wing Landscape
Since Andy Burnham assumed the premiership, British politics has been described as “in flux” (Keiran Pedley, UK director of politics at Ipsos). Burnham’s rise coincided with a decline for Reform UK, which a year earlier held a comfortable lead among right-leaning voters. Kemi Badenoch became leader of the Conservative Party in November 2024, positioning herself as a reform-focused alternative to both Labour and Reform UK.
Poll Data and Approval Ratings
Two recent surveys illustrate the current ordering of parties ahead of the next general election:
- The More in Common poll places the Conservatives in second place with 24 % of voting intention, four points behind Labour (28 %) and three points ahead of Reform UK (21 %).
- A YouGov poll released the same week shows the Conservatives at 23 %, Labour at 24 %, and Reform UK at 21 %.
Both polls mark the first time since January 2025 that the Tories have led Reform UK by a margin of three points or more.
Approval figures reported by Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, show Burnham leading on gross approval at 40 %, Badenoch at 35 %, and Nigel Farage at 26 %. Badenoch’s “Badenoch Bounce” is attributed to rising right-wing approval (+62 % among 2024 Conservative voters, +18 % among Reform supporters) and modest gains among Liberal Democrat (-9) and Labour (-10) respondents.
Official Statements & Responses
- “These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham’s arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK,” said Keiran Pedley, underscoring the broader realignment.
- He added that the “Badenoch Bounce” stems from rising approvals on the right and improved cross-party perceptions.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The two polls differ slightly in the Conservatives’ share (24 % vs. 23 %) and Labour’s share (28 % vs. 24 %). No source provides a definitive explanation for the variance, and neither poll offers a breakdown by demographic groups, leaving uncertainty about the durability of the Conservative lead over Reform UK.
Implications for the 2024 Election
The shift places the Conservatives as the primary opposition to Labour, potentially reshaping campaign strategies on both the right and centre. If the “Badenoch Bounce” endures, the Tories could consolidate former Reform voters, altering the balance of power in constituencies where right-wing protest votes were previously decisive. Conversely, the modest gap between Labour and the Conservatives suggests a competitive race, with voter sentiment still susceptible to change ahead of the election.