Full Breakdown
Trump Waives Russia-Related Tariffs, Relieving India from Immediate 100% Duty Threat
By Drooid · · How we work
The Waiver Decision
On October 16, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order invoking the waiver provision of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (the “Graham Act”). Citing “national interests,” the order suspends the sanctions, restrictions and duties the Act would have imposed on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas. The waiver is temporary and will remain in effect until the president or the secretary of state, in consultation with treasury and trade officials, determines further action is needed.
Background & Context
The Graham Act was enacted by Congress on September 16, 2026 and signed into law on September 18, 2026. It authorises tariffs of up to 100 % on goods imported from the world’s five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas—including India and China. Earlier drafts contemplated tariffs as high as 500 %, but the final version limited the maximum to 100 %.
The United States pursued the measure to increase pressure on Moscow for its war in Ukraine while also leveraging trade levers over major energy-importing nations. Domestic fuel-price spikes and the approaching November 3, 2026 midterm elections heightened the administration’s urgency to curb diesel costs. A bilateral diesel-supply agreement with Russia, announced on October 9, 2026, made penalising other buyers more difficult, prompting the waiver.
Data & Statistics
- India imported 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in September 2026, about 35 % of its total oil imports; the July peak was 2.8 million bpd.
- U.S. diesel prices rose to $6.18 per gallon by October 12, 2026, up from $3.48 at the start of the year (EIA).
- India’s retail inflation reached 5.54 % in September 2026, with food inflation at 7.74 %.
- The Graham Act required duties of up to 100 % to be raised by October 18, 2026; the waiver pre-empted that deadline.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump’s order included the declaration, “I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai on October 20, 2026 to review bilateral ties and discuss trade and energy cooperation.
Criticism & Opposition
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators urged the administration to enforce the Graham Act’s provisions, arguing that the sanctions were essential to maintain pressure on Moscow and uphold U.S. trade credibility.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the original scope of the legislation: some describe an initial proposal of 500 % tariffs later reduced to 100 %, while others focus only on the final figure. The evolution of the tariff ceiling is noted but not detailed in the final law, leaving uncertainty about how earlier drafts might have influenced diplomatic negotiations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I am hereby waiving the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act,” — President Trump
What’s Next
The waiver will stay in force until the president or the secretary of state, after consulting treasury and trade representatives, decides otherwise. Monitoring of countries’ purchases of Russian-origin oil and potential sanctions-evasion activities will continue, with regular reports to the White House. The October 18, 2026 deadline for imposing the 100 % duties has passed without activation, but the Graham Act’s authority remains intact, allowing future reinstatement of tariffs. The upcoming October 20, 2026 meeting between Indian and U.S. officials will shape the next phase of U.S. energy-price policy and its trade relationship with India.