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NOAA Warns Historic El Niño Likely This Winter

By Drooid · Oct 18, 2026, 2:43 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

NOAA El Niño Forecast

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a very strong El Niño will dominate the United States winter of 2026-27.
The agency gives an 83% chance the El Niño will reach historic strength between October and December.
NOAA’s October 15 outlook predicts wetter winter for California, the Desert Southwest, Florida and the Southeast.
Ken Graham warned excess rain on dry soils could trigger flash floods and mudslides.

Summary

Newsom Declares Emergency

Governor Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency on Sept. 21 to mobilize resources for the El Niño.
Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson presented a seven-point recovery plan after Tropical Storm Rachel damaged homes and the boardwalk.
Eight multimillion-dollar oceanfront homes were red-tagged as unsafe, while one property received a yellow tag.
The city moved truckloads of sand on Oct. 10 and launched an $11.4 million Alamitos Bay dredging project.

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NOAA El Niño Forecast

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a very strong El Niño will dominate the United States winter of 2026-27.
The agency gives an 83% chance the El Niño will reach historic strength between October and December.
NOAA’s October 15 outlook predicts wetter winter for California, the Desert Southwest, Florida and the Southeast.
Ken Graham warned excess rain on dry soils could trigger flash floods and mudslides.

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