Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up Amid Immigration Crackdown and Record-Breaking Spending
By Drooid · · How we work
The Texas Senate Race: Stakes and Candidates
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for the U.S. Senate seat that could determine partisan control of the chamber. Talarico seeks to become the first Democrat to win a statewide Texas race since 1994. Paxton runs despite a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and ongoing scandal allegations.
Background & Context
President Donald Trump has been campaigning in traditionally red states, including Texas, to energize the Republican base. Recent immigration enforcement actions—detaining families and a local nun from Nigeria—have sparked backlash in the Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Latino region that historically leans Democratic. Local business owners say the crackdown is depressing the regional economy and labor supply.
Data & Statistics
- Ad spending: Over $500 million has been poured into the race, according to Ad Impact Politics, making it one of the most expensive non-presidential contests in U.S. history. Republicans have contributed more than $368 million; Democrats about $132 million.
- Fundraising: On October 15, 2026, Talarico announced a $64 million haul in the third quarter, bringing his total to $134 million. Paxton raised $18 million in the same period.
- Polling: The Real Clear Politics average of polls between September 24 and October 14 shows Talarico ahead by 2.2 percentage points. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll on October 18, 2026 indicated that 83 % of Talarico supporters and 69 % of Paxton supporters said they were unlikely to change their minds.
On-the-Ground Reports
Voters in the Rio Grande Valley describe the raids as “inhumane” and blame them for labor shortages that have stalled construction projects. Builder Mario Guerrero, a former Trump voter, now backs Democrats, saying the enforcement “has gone too far.” Builder Ariel Salinas called the situation a “nightmare” and announced he will vote Democratic this year.
Official Statements & Responses
- GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser noted, “There are a few undecideds, but not many.”
- Vice President JD Vance urged Republicans to turn out for Paxton: “Because of you, we’re going to make him the next United States Senator representing Texas, Ken Paxton. He fights for you. Let’s fight for him.”
- Talarico framed his campaign around unity, saying, “I am tired of us being divided into teams, left vs. right, blue vs. red, urban vs. rural because the truth is we’re all on the same team.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
In early October, conservative social-media users circulated a claim that Talarico had been treated at an Ohio mental-health facility. No evidence has emerged to substantiate the claim, highlighting the prevalence of unverified misinformation in the race.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I just have to do something,” — Karyme Segura
- “That decision to stay home for a week sent my opponent and his conspiracy theorists spiraling. I opened up social media and learned that I had apparently dropped out of the race, flown to a mental health facility in Ohio, that I had died,” — James Talarico, spokesperson
What’s Next
Early voting began on October 18, 2026, giving both campaigns a final window to mobilize supporters before Election Day. With record spending and polarized rhetoric, the outcome will likely shape the Senate’s partisan balance and signal the durability of Republican dominance in Texas.