Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Hits Record Lows as Midterms Approach
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings of Recent Polls
A late-October NBC News Decision Desk poll of roughly 19,000 U.S. adults found 71 % believe the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share recorded in President Donald Trump’s second term. The poll placed Trump’s overall approval at 34 % among adults and 39 % among registered voters, while 66 % disapproved. A majority—51 %—said they “strongly disapprove” of his performance.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll reported a slightly lower adult approval figure of 33 % and a disapproval rate of 66 %, with 52 % expressing strong disapproval. Both surveys show a pronounced decline from earlier in the term.
Background & Context
President Trump entered his second term amid a polarized electorate. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms that follow a presidential election, a pattern seen in 2018 and 2022. The 2026 midterms therefore test Republican control of Congress, especially as Democrats currently enjoy leads in projected House and Senate outcomes according to the Cook Political Report.
Data & Statistics
- National Mood: 71 % say the nation is on the wrong track; 57 % view the Democratic Party unfavorably, and 63 % view the Republican Party unfavorably.
- Party Favorability: 43 % hold a favorable view of Democrats, 37 % of Republicans.
- Economic Sentiment: 44 % say their personal finances are worse than a year ago; 38 % say they are about the same; 18 % say they are better. Inflation was reported at 3.7 % year-over-year, and 67 % consider gas prices a serious problem.
- Issue-Specific Approval: 27 % approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, 29 % on the war with Iran, 33 % on AI policy, and 43 % on border security.
- Policy Impact Perception: 58 % say Trump’s policies are hurting the country, 28 % say they are helping.
- $5,000 Payment Promise: Only 14 % of adults say they definitely or probably expect to receive the check, while 71 % think they will not. Among self-identified Republicans, 47 % doubt they will receive the payment, and 28 % expect it.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump has pledged a $5,000 payment to Americans should Republicans control both chambers after the midterms, positioning the promise as a direct benefit of a GOP victory. Within his party, Trump retains strong support, with 76 % of Republican-identified adults approving of his performance—a decline from earlier in the term.
On October 12, 2026, Trump departed the White House, marking the final weeks of his administration before the upcoming elections.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Approval Ratings: NBC records adult approval at 34 % versus 33 % in the Washington Post-ABC poll; both agree on a 66 % disapproval rate.
- Strong Disapproval: NBC reports 51 % strong disapproval; the Washington Post-ABC poll reports 52 %.
- Demographic Detail: Neither poll provides detailed breakdowns for key swing-state demographics, leaving uncertainty about how specific voter groups may influence the outcome.
What’s Next
The nation heads toward the midterm elections in early November, with all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate contested. Projections from the Cook Political Report suggest Democrats hold an eight-point advantage for control of the House and a viable path to flip the Senate, which currently has a narrow Republican majority. The outcome will determine whether Trump’s administration faces a Democratic-controlled Congress capable of pursuing investigations and legislative checks.