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Story summary
- Ipsos poll (9-13 Oct 2026) shows 35 % view Conservatives as main opposition, ahead of Reform UK’s 32 %—first time this Parliament.
- Conservatives’ rise follows Kemi Badenoch’s Birmingham conference announcements on inheritance tax, defence and prison construction.
- Reform UK, previously leading opposition polls by 28 points in May and 10 in August, fell behind amid recent scandals.
- MRP poll projects Labour at 40 % in Greater Manchester, 12 points above national, winning 25 of 27 seats.