Full Breakdown
Super El Niño Drought Cripples West Kalimantan Palm Oil Supply Chain
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Disruption in West Kalimantan
Supendi, a palm-fruit farmer from Sanggau, spent four days in early October waiting at the Multi Prima Entakai mill, only to be turned away because the site was full. The “super El Niño” drought has dried the Kapuas River, causing sandbanks to emerge and grounding barges and tugboats. With river transport stalled, local mills have cut fresh-fruit-bunch purchases, leaving thousands of smallholders with rotting fruit and no viable outlet.
Background & Context
The 2026 El Niño, described by meteorologists as the strongest on record, brings hotter, drier conditions to Southeast Asia. Unlike the month-long droughts of 2015 and 2018, the current dry spell has persisted for two months and pushed the start of the rainy season back to November, further delaying river recovery and intensifying wildfire risk across Borneo.
Data & Statistics
- The Kapuas River carries about 40 % of West Kalimantan’s palm-oil output (GAPKI).
- 13 of 50 palm-oil mills in the province are affected by the transport bottleneck (Aris Supratman, GAPKI West Kalimantan).
- Supratman estimates an ?11 % drop in September supply relative to August because of the backlog.
- GAPKI has lowered its 2026 national palm-oil production forecast by 2.9 % due to slowed fruit maturation.
- The Multi Prima Entakai mill’s fruit-bunch purchases fell from 30,000 t in July to 10,000 t in September (Dian Kurniawan, mill manager).
- As of Oct 1, the mill stored 8,200 t of crude palm oil, near its 8,500-t tank capacity.
- Smallholder Rahmat Wiyono reports receiving 2,650 rupiah/kg, down from 3,400 rupiah/kg weeks earlier.
- Farmers such as Indra Rustandi have cut fertilizer use by up to 70 % to conserve cash.
Official Statements & Responses
Dian Kurniawan (Multi Prima Entakai) noted that “we usually can deliver 2,000 t in four days, but with trucks sometimes we can only deliver 100 t per day.” Indonesia’s weather agency warns that the rainy season’s onset is likely to be postponed to November, extending the drought’s impact on agriculture and transport.
Why It Matters
The supply-chain squeeze threatens farmer livelihoods and reduces palm-oil output from West Kalimantan—about 11 % of Indonesia’s total production—potentially lowering national export volumes.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
No source provides a definitive date for the river’s rebound or the exact timing of the rainy season’s return, leaving uncertainty about when transport capacity will normalize.
Timeline
- Early October – Supendi’s failed delivery attempt at Multi Prima Entakai.
- Oct 1 – Mill storage reaches 8,200 t, near capacity.
- Oct 8 – Satellite data show half of global smoke haze originating in Indonesia over the preceding week.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We usually can deliver 2,000 tonnes in four days, but with trucks sometimes we can only deliver 100 tonnes per day,” — Dian Kurniawan.
- “It might be a little bit variable, but it will come,” — Ben Churchill, WMO director.