Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up as Talarico and Paxton Launch Statewide Tours
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Core Event: Dual Bus Tours Ramp Up Ahead of Election
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton have each begun extensive bus tours across Texas as the November 3 election approaches. Talarico launched his “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour on October 18, 2026 with a rally in Plano, a Dallas suburb that voted heavily for former President Donald Trump in 2024. The itinerary includes stops in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Lubbock, Galveston and will conclude in Austin the day before the election. Paxton started an 18-day tour on October 17, 2026 at Rockwall Municipal Airport and plans to finish at the Alamo in San Antonio later this month.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994, and the last Democratic Senate victory was in 1988. The race therefore represents the most competitive Senate contest in the state in decades, with national implications for control of the U.S. Senate during President Trump’s final two years in office.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: The Real Clear Politics average of polls taken between September 24 and October 14 shows Talarico ahead by 2.2 points.
- Fundraising: Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, bringing his total to $134 million. Paxton raised $18 million in the same period.
- Advertising Spend: Total spending on the race has exceeded $500 million. Republicans have contributed more than $368 million, while Democrats have spent about $132 million.
- Outside Money: Elon Musk, through the Senate Leadership Fund, contributed $158 million to a Texas PAC supporting Paxton, plus an additional $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton used his Rockwall kickoff to unveil the “Protecting Texas Promise Plan,” promising a $25,000 deduction for out-of-pocket medical expenses and a $50,000 down-payment deduction for first-time homebuyers, alongside a doubled child-tax credit.
Talarico highlighted his legislative record, noting that he helped pass Texas’s first cap on insulin co-pays, reducing the cost from $684 to $25 per prescription. He framed the campaign as a fight against “billionaires and corrupt politicians” who have “rigged the system.”
On-the-Ground Reports
- “He just wants to put that aside and focus on the things that’ll actually help everybody,” — Mr. Beahmer, 38, of Plano.
- “I voted for Trump the first time, and then I said never again,” — Ms. Malone, 67, of McKinney.
- “They think that they can buy us, and that they can essentially be the kings of the country,” — Kaitlyn Johnson, 29, bartender.
Criticism & Opposition
Paxton’s record has been scrutinized. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 for alleged misuse of office, acquitted by the Senate, and later paid $271,000 in restitution to avoid trial on fraud charges. Investigations have documented nearly 1,000 security-accompanied trips costing $3.3 million, many lacking a clear business purpose.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling data varies: while the Real Clear Politics average shows a Democratic lead, other unnamed polls have suggested a slight Republican edge. No source provides a definitive statewide margin, leaving the exact size of the lead uncertain.
What’s Next
Early voting began on Monday following the October 17 update. Both campaigns will continue their bus tours through the final week, with Talarico’s last stop in Austin and Paxton’s concluding rally at the Alamo the same day. Voters will cast ballots on November 3, deciding which party controls one of the Senate’s pivotal seats.
