Story perspectives

NOAA’s Winter Outlook Predicts El Niño-Driven Wetter South, Mild North

By Drooid · Oct 19, 2026, 4:22 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

NOAA issues winter outlook linking record-strength El Niño to milder north and wetter south.
The outlook predicts above-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to New England.
It forecasts wetter-than-average precipitation for the Southwest, Southeast and Eastern Seaboard.
NOAA expects drought relief this winter in the Southwest, southern Great Plains and East Coast.
National Weather Service (NWS) director Ken Graham warns rain on dry soils may cause flash floods.

History

Historical Context

The 1997-98 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, lifted U.S. winter temperatures by about 0.3 °C and boosted Southwest rainfall 28 % (NOAA CPC). Those anomalies sparked extensive flooding, especially in the Southwest. NOAA’s 2024 outlook, voiced by NWS chief Ken Graham, predicts a similar warm, wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest, New England, and a wetter Southwest, echoing the 1997-98 impacts.

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Story summary

NOAA issues winter outlook linking record-strength El Niño to milder north and wetter south.
The outlook predicts above-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to New England.
It forecasts wetter-than-average precipitation for the Southwest, Southeast and Eastern Seaboard.
NOAA expects drought relief this winter in the Southwest, southern Great Plains and East Coast.
National Weather Service (NWS) director Ken Graham warns rain on dry soils may cause flash floods.

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