Full Breakdown
Labour Poised for Record London Sweep as Greens Face Potential Zero-Seat Outcome
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London Seat Forecast from MRP Poll
The MRP model poll, run by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, surveyed 6,699 respondents between 25 September and 2 October. It projected Labour could capture 59 or 60 of the 75 London constituencies, putting the party at 34 percent of the London vote—up nine points since July. The Greens were forecast at 18 percent, a three-point drop, while the Conservatives fell to 16 percent, down two points. Reform UK held steady at 13 percent, the Liberal Democrats slipped to 9 percent, Restore rose to 7 percent, and independents/minor parties were at 3 percent. Nationally, the same poll allocated Labour 353 seats (a 56-seat majority), the Conservatives 90, Reform 81, the Liberal Democrats 70, the SNP 28, the Greens four, and Restore one.
Decline of Green Party Support
The Greens’ projected loss of all London seats follows a turbulent period for party leader Zack Polanski. After the party’s defeat in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, Polanski faced calls to resign and criticism for missing a debate on a conference motion that labeled Zionism a form of racism. The motion drew condemnation from other parties and Jewish groups, and Polanski was subsequently barred from entering Israel. Former Green leader Caroline Lucas described his leadership as a failure, and another senior figure called the situation “untenable.”
Key Political Figures
- Andy Burnham – Prime Minister; credited by Electoral Calculus chief Martin Baxter with uniting left-of-centre voters in London.
- Martin Baxter – Chief executive, Electoral Calculus; said Burnham is drawing votes from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to re-establish Labour’s dominance.
- Zack Polanski – Green Party leader; subject of internal and external criticism over recent controversies.
- Caroline Lucas – Former Green Party leader; publicly accused Polanski of leadership failure.
Data Overview
- Labour: 34 % London vote, 59-60 seats forecast; 353 seats nationally.
- Greens: 18 % London vote, projected zero London seats; four seats nationally.
- Conservatives: 16 % London vote, down two points.
- Survey period: 25 September – 2 October; sample size 6,699.
Potential Impact
If the poll’s projections materialize, Labour would achieve a historic London majority, while the Greens could lose their only representation in the capital, undermining the party’s strategy that hinged on recent local-council gains. The shift may also reshape future coalition dynamics, with the Liberal Democrats retaining a modest foothold in southwest London and Reform UK gaining a single seat in Bexleyheath and Crayford.