Full Breakdown
SpaceX and Tesla Q3 Earnings Set Stage for Merger Speculation
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Consecutive Q3 Reports Highlight Merger Talk
On Oct 19, Reuters reported that SpaceX (SPCX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) will file third-quarter results on consecutive days, giving investors a side-by-side view of Elon Musk’s two most valuable companies. SpaceX’s earnings are scheduled for after the market close on Oct 20, with Tesla’s report to follow the next day. Analysts say investors will gauge whether Starlink revenue growth, launch activity, and Tesla’s auto margins can support a potential merger.
Background & Context
Barclays has suggested that a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting on Dec 3, and that SpaceX is the likelier acquirer. The speculation intensified after SpaceX’s February acquisition of Musk’s xAI and its ongoing AI-related capital spending. On the same week, Tesla unveiled a new Roadster at a SpaceX test site in Texas, underscoring the “auto-rocket” narrative. Additionally, SpaceX agreed on Oct 8 to purchase 800 MHz of spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a deal pending FCC approval and central to its Starlink Mobile ambitions.
Data & Statistics
- Revenue expectations: Bloomberg consensus projects SpaceX Q3 revenue of $12.9-$13.0 billion, roughly a 65 % year-over-year increase from Q2.
- AI compute: Forecasts place AI revenue at $6.4-$6.5 billion, overtaking Starlink as the company’s largest source for the quarter.
- Starlink connectivity: Expected revenue of $4.8 billion; subscriber base grew to 12 million in Q2 and is projected to reach 14.3 million.
- Tesla deliveries: 486,532 vehicles were delivered in Q3, beating estimates. Analysts anticipate Tesla revenue of roughly $27.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of about 43 cents.
Official Statements & Responses
- “In terms of metrics, it would have to be Starlink revenue growth more than launch counts and improvement in auto margins for Tesla,” — Shawn Campbell, adviser at Camelthorn Investments
- Barclays analyst Dan Levy noted that an all-stock deal would need to be announced by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s early-December annual meeting.
- Tesla confirmed that its annual shareholder meeting will be held on Dec 3.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In terms of metrics, it would have to be Starlink revenue growth more than launch counts and improvement in auto margins for Tesla,” — Shawn Campbell, adviser at Camelthorn Investments
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Revenue forecasts for SpaceX’s Q3 vary between $12.87 billion and $13.0 billion.
- Adjusted EPS expectations range from $0.14 to $0.23.
- No company has confirmed a merger plan; the exact timing and structure remain uncertain.
What’s Next
- SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings after the market close on Oct 20.
- Tesla’s Q3 earnings will follow shortly thereafter.
- The FCC’s approval of the 800 MHz spectrum purchase will be a key regulatory step for Starlink Mobile.
- Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting on Dec 3 will be the deadline for any merger vote, should an agreement be announced.