Story perspectives

Trafalgar Poll Shows Tight Iowa Senate Race for Hinson, Turek

By Drooid · Oct 19, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and Democrat Josh Turek (D-IA) are locked in a tight Iowa Senate race.
A Trafalgar poll Oct 13-15 gave Hinson 46%, Turek 44% and over 6% undecided.
President Donald Trump will rally in Sioux City on Oct 22 and in Iowa on Nov 1 for Hinson.
Political scientist John Geer warned that turnout, not undecided voters, will likely decide the race.

History

Historical Context

After the 2000 presidential contest hinged on Florida’s 537-vote margin—decided by the Supreme Court’s Bush v. Gore ruling—tight statewide counts have become a template for swing races. In Iowa’s 2024 Senate contest, Rep. Ashley Hinson faces challenger Josh Turek, while Donald Trump’s Oct 22 rally in Sioux City aims to energize Hinson’s base, echoing the decisive turnout impact of 2000.

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Story summary

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and Democrat Josh Turek (D-IA) are locked in a tight Iowa Senate race.
A Trafalgar poll Oct 13-15 gave Hinson 46%, Turek 44% and over 6% undecided.
President Donald Trump will rally in Sioux City on Oct 22 and in Iowa on Nov 1 for Hinson.
Political scientist John Geer warned that turnout, not undecided voters, will likely decide the race.

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