Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record Lows Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Historic Decline in Presidential Approval
Multiple national surveys released in October 2026 show President Donald Trump’s job-approval rating falling to the lowest levels recorded in either of his terms. The Reuters/Ipsos poll reported approval at 31 %, the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll placed it at 33 %, and the Economist/YouGov survey of men (Oct 10-12) found a net rating of -19 points. A Napolitan News Service poll (Oct 5-13) recorded overall approval at 19 %, the lowest point in that series. Across aggregators, RealClearPolitics averaged 38.9 % approval and 59.3 % disapproval; the New York Times average showed 37 % approval and 61 % disapproval.
Background & Context
Early voting began in several swing states as the November 3 midterm elections approach. Historically, the party of a sitting president loses seats in Congress, and the current polling environment suggests a challenging environment for Republicans. Earlier 2025 polls had shown Trump’s approval in the mid-30 % range, indicating a steady slide over the past year.
Data & Statistics
- Reuters/Ipsos (Oct): 31 % approve, 69 % disapprove.
- Washington Post-ABC (Oct): 33 % approve, 66 % disapprove.
- Economist/YouGov (Oct 10-12): 40 % of men approve, net -19.
- Napolitan News Service (Oct 5-13): 19 % approve, net -17.
- RealClearPolitics average: 38.9 % approval, 59.3 % disapproval.
- New York Times average: 37 % approval, 61 % disapproval.
Why It Matters
Republican candidates are positioning Trump as a de-facto standard-bearer. Declining approval could depress turnout among his core supporters, especially men who have historically supplied a “gender gap” advantage. Analysts note that if Republican men stay home or shift to other candidates, the GOP’s ability to retain House and Senate majorities could be compromised.
Criticism & Opposition
- John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, argued that “this is the result of policy decisions that have been made and did not work.”
On-the-Ground Reports
Farmers in Nebraska and other rural areas reported rising input costs, with diesel and fertilizer prices up roughly 40 % and some equipment costing three times previous levels. A coordinated “No Kings: Vote Early” protest on Oct 17 drew crowds in cities such as San Francisco, underscoring heightened public engagement ahead of the midterms.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact approval figure: Reuters/Ipsos cites 31 %, Washington Post-ABC 33 %, while RealClearPolitics aggregates near 39 %. The Economist/YouGov survey isolates men’s attitudes, producing a net -19, whereas the Napolitan poll reports a net -17 for the overall electorate. Methodological variations (sample size, weighting, question wording) are not fully disclosed, leaving a gap in understanding the precise magnitude of the decline.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This demographic loves their trucks and the $100+ fill-up was a real eye-opener,” — Montgomery
- “It’s important to note that approval is not votes,” — Kirsten England, University of South Florida
- “We spend so much time trying to identify which voters are switching parties, when one of the most consequential decisions a voter makes is whether to participate in the first place,” — Caroline Welles
What’s Next
Early voting continues through the weekend of Oct 17, and the November 3 midterm elections will determine control of both chambers of Congress. Polling aggregates as of mid-October give Democrats an eight-point lead in generic congressional ballots, and forecast models project a high probability of Democratic control of the House. Republican strategists must decide whether to lean on Trump’s personal brand or distance themselves to mitigate the impact of his low approval.