Full Breakdown
National Party Gains in Poll Ahead of Leaders Debate
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Surge in Support for National
The 1News-Verian poll shows the National Party increasing its backing by four points to 32 percent, while Labour slipped one point to 27 percent. The Greens rose one point to 16 percent, ACT gained one point to 11 percent, New Zealand First fell two points to eight percent, and Te Pati Maori edged up to 0.7 percent.
Background & Context: Upcoming Leaders Debate
The poll was released as the two major party leaders prepare for the televised Stuff leaders debate scheduled for Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. The debate is expected to be a key moment for voters to assess the parties ahead of the next election cycle.
Data & Statistics: Survey Methodology and Seat Projections
The 1News-Verian poll surveyed 1,003 eligible voters between October 15 and October 19, 2026, using a mix of mobile-phone (500 respondents) and online panel (503 respondents) methods. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1 percentage-points at the 95 percent confidence level. Weighted adjustments align the sample with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.
Based on the poll’s seat-allocation model, a right-leaning bloc that includes National (38 seats), ACT (13 seats) and New Zealand First (nine seats) would total 60 seats—one short of a majority in the 120-seat Parliament. Adding the eight seats held by the Opportunity Party would give the bloc a slim majority. By contrast, a left-leaning configuration of Labour (32 seats), the Greens (19 seats), Te Pati Maori (one seat) and Opportunity (eight seats) also totals 60 seats, assuming Te Pati Maori secures only one electorate.
Implications for Government Formation
The poll suggests that, if the current distribution of seats holds, the right-hand coalition could form a government only with the support of the Opportunity Party, a scenario National leader Christopher Luxon has publicly ruled out. Consequently, the left-hand coalition would need to rely on the same eight Opportunity seats to reach a majority, highlighting the pivotal role of smaller parties in any potential coalition.
What’s Next: Leaders Debate
The upcoming Stuff leaders debate on Tuesday night will be the first major public test of the parties’ positions since the poll’s release, offering voters a chance to reassess support levels before the election campaign intensifies.