Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Final Tours, Billion-Dollar Money Flow, and a Toss-Up Election
By Drooid · · How we work
The Final Campaign Push
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Rep. James Talarico are in the home stretch of a tightly contested U.S. Senate race. Both candidates have launched statewide bus tours—Paxton’s “Come and Take It” tour began in Rockwall, Texas, while Talarico’s “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour kicked off in Plano on October 18. The tours will culminate with Paxton’s rally at the Alamo on November 2 and Talarico’s concert in San Antonio on November 1, the day before Election Day.
Background & Context
Paxton survived a 2023 impeachment and a dismissed 2015 securities-fraud indictment. He beat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May Republican primary runoff, becoming the first Republican in 32 years to face a serious statewide challenge. Talarico, a four-term state representative, seeks to become the first Democrat to win a Texas statewide office since 1994. The race draws national attention because the winner will affect Senate control during President Donald Trump’s final two years.
Timeline
- October 8–16 – CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters finds Talarico leading 51 % to 49 % (margin ± 3.5 %).
- October 17 – Early voting begins in Texas.
- October 18 – Talarico launches his 21-stop campus tour.
- October 17–November 2 – Paxton’s “Come and Take It” tour schedule.
- November 1 – Talarico’s concert in San Antonio.
- November 2 – Paxton’s Alamo rally.
- November 3 – Election Day.
Data & Statistics
- Fundraising: Talarico raised $64 million in Q3, Paxton $18 million.
- Outside Spending: Elon Musk contributed $158 million to a Republican super PAC backing Paxton, plus $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC.
- Ad Purchases: Total advertising exceeds $500 million, with Republicans accounting for just over half.
- Polls: RealClearPolling’s average shows Talarico ahead by 2.2 points; the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 2-point lead.
Why It Matters
Control of the Senate hinges on Texas, a state that has voted Republican in every statewide race since 1994. A Democratic win would give the party a clear majority, shaping federal legislation and oversight for the remainder of the Trump administration’s term.
Official Statements & Responses
- Paxton unveiled the “Protecting Texas Promise Plan,” proposing a $25,000 deduction for out-of-pocket medical expenses and a $50,000 down-payment deduction for first-time homebuyers.
- President Donald Trump praised Paxton, saying “Ken Paxton’s gone way up in the poll.”
- Talarico highlighted his work capping insulin co-pays from $684 to $25 per prescription.
On-the-Ground Reports
At Paxton’s Rockwall rally, a protest sign read “Ken Paxton — protects pedophiles,” referencing a past deal that allowed a child-abuse defendant to serve only one day in jail.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling presents a mixed picture: RealClearPolling shows a modest Democratic edge, while some internal GOP sources claim Paxton’s numbers have surged after recent Trump appearances. No definitive post-primary polling has been released to reconcile these differences.
What’s Next
Early voting runs through the end of the month; the race will be decided on November 3. President Trump is scheduled to campaign in Texas later in October, and Paxton’s bus tour will conclude at the Alamo on November 2. Both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach in the final days before the election.