Full Breakdown
Maine Senate Race: Collins vs. Jackson in a Tight Midterm Battle
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Contest and Stakes
Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, former state Senate president. The election is scheduled for November 3. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority, Democrats must flip four seats to gain control; Maine is viewed as a pivotal pickup because the state voted for the Democratic presidential ticket in 2024, making Collins the only GOP senator from a state that backed the Democratic ticket.
Background & Context
Collins first won a Senate seat in 1996 and has chaired the Senate Appropriations Committee, emphasizing her ability to deliver federal funding to every Maine county. She previously won re-election by large margins, but her 2020 margin shrank from over 30 points to nine, a shift attributed to loss of Democratic and independent support. The race is framed as a test of Collins’s moderate brand versus Jackson’s progressive platform, with ticket-splitters—voters who supported the Democratic presidential candidate and may back Collins for Senate—identified as decisive.
Data & Statistics
- A Suffolk poll of 500 voters from early October gave Collins a 3-point lead among independents (47% vs 44%).
- A YouGov/CBS poll of 1,144 registered voters showed Jackson leading independents by 7 points (53% vs 46%) and women by 10 points (55% vs 45%).
- A Washington Post/George Mason poll of 800 likely voters found Jackson at 50% and Collins at 46%.
- The Suffolk poll placed Jackson ahead of Collins among women by 7 points (52% vs 43%).
- Jackson’s campaign disclosed a four-to-one fundraising advantage in the most recent quarter, though Collins remains ahead overall.
- Absentee voting began October 5 and will continue until October 29; more than 70,000 Mainers had requested an absentee ballot as of October 2.
Official Statements & Responses
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson, and Senator Bernie Sanders campaigned with him. Senator Joe Manchin announced a joint appearance with Collins in central Maine.
Criticism & Opposition
Jackson accused Collins of aligning with Trump’s immigration agenda, asserting, “Sen. Collins paid for the bullets at Donald Trump’s command. Now she wants credit for not pulling the trigger.” He also criticized her support for the “One Big Beautiful” budget, arguing that the $190 million earmarked for Maine hospitals is insufficient against projected Medicaid cuts. Political scientist James Melcher warned that Collins’s 2020 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh may have eroded support among pro-choice women.
On-the-Ground Reports
During the final debate, a 19-year-old Bowdoin College student, Henry Elgie, interrupted Collins to protest AI data centers and climate impacts.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Jackson’s lead among independents and women, with the Suffolk poll showing a narrow Collins advantage among independents, while the YouGov/CBS poll shows a double-digit Jackson lead. Exit-polling data for the 2024 presidential election in Maine is unavailable, leaving uncertainty about how Harris-voting voters may split their tickets. Jackson’s reported fundraising edge in the latest quarter is not reflected in overall totals.
What’s Next
In-person absentee voting runs through October 29, after which the final weeks of the campaign will focus on voter outreach and last-minute advertising ahead of the November 3 election. Both campaigns have scheduled additional town-hall events, and prediction markets currently give Jackson a slight edge.