Full Breakdown
Trump’s Net Approval Plummets Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump holds a negative net approval rating in 41 states and every major battleground, according to the Civiqs rolling tracker of registered voters. The tracker, based on 137,330 responses collected between January 20, 2025 and October 19, 2026, shows a national approval of 32 % versus 61 % disapproval, a net rating of minus 29.
State-by-State Landscape
Only nine states register a positive net rating for Trump, all in traditionally Republican territory: Wyoming +14, North Dakota +11, West Virginia +8, Arkansas +7, Idaho +4, Alabama +3, South Dakota +2, Oklahoma +1 and Utah +1. Every major battleground is underwater: Arizona -20, Florida -17, Georgia -26, Michigan -28, Nevada -24, North Carolina -17, Ohio -21, Pennsylvania -23 and Wisconsin -23.
Six Senate-contested states also show negative net approval: Maine -33, Michigan -28, Iowa -22, Ohio -21, Texas -21 and Alaska -12. The steepest declines since the start of Trump’s second term include Kentucky (from +23 to -13, a 36-point drop) and Wyoming (from +47 to +14, a 33-point drop).
Demographic Breakdown
Among voters 18-34, 20 % approve and 72 % disapprove (52-point gap). The 35-49 cohort splits 25 % approval to 66 % disapproval. Approval rises with age: 40 % of those 50-64 and 42 % of those 65+ disapprove less than younger voters, but disapproval still exceeds approval in every age group.
Independents disapprove 66 % to 25 % approval; Republicans approve 75 % versus 13 % disapproval. Female voters disapprove 66 % to 28 % approval, while male voters show a 55-to-37 split. Education yields similar patterns: 20 % of post-graduates, 31 % of college graduates and 36 % of non-college graduates approve, with disapproval leading in each segment.
Official White House Response
Ingle argued that the administration’s record on tax cuts, prescription-drug costs, border security, energy production, private-sector employment and retirement accounts should energize the Republican coalition and present voters with a choice between Trump’s “winning, commonsense agenda” and Democrats’ “extreme liberal policies and obstruction.”
Conflicting Poll Findings & Gaps
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released in mid-October reported 33 % approval and 66 % disapproval, matching a contemporaneous Fox News poll. These figures are slightly higher than the Civiqs numbers, highlighting modest variation across methodologies.
The poll also noted a doubling of the margin favoring Democrats for House control since the previous year. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report identifies competitive Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, underscoring the strategic importance of Trump’s standing in those states.
Implications for the Midterm Contest
Presidential approval does not directly predict individual races, but the pervasive negativity toward Trump creates a challenging environment for Republican candidates, especially in swing states where the president’s net rating is deeply underwater. Campaigns must decide whether to distance themselves from an unpopular administration or to leverage Trump’s perceived leadership among the party base. The divergent poll results suggest uncertainty about the exact magnitude of disapproval, but the consensus across sources is that Trump’s popularity has declined sharply since the start of his second term, potentially shaping turnout, messaging and the overall balance of power in Congress.