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PBO Cuts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.9%

By Drooid · Oct 20, 2026, 6:06 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Parliamentary Budget Office cut the 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% and the 2027 forecast to 1.5%.
The revision follows the end-August breakdown of trade talks and a new round of U.S. and Canadian tariffs.
The office now projects a 2026-27 deficit of $63.3 billion, peaking at $70.2 billion in 2027-28.
Deficits average about $3 billion higher per year through 2030-31.
Inflation is projected at 2.8% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.

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Story summary

Parliamentary Budget Office cut the 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% and the 2027 forecast to 1.5%.
The revision follows the end-August breakdown of trade talks and a new round of U.S. and Canadian tariffs.
The office now projects a 2026-27 deficit of $63.3 billion, peaking at $70.2 billion in 2027-28.
Deficits average about $3 billion higher per year through 2030-31.
Inflation is projected at 2.8% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.