Full Breakdown
Trump’s October 27 Texas Rally Aims to Tip the Senate Race in Ken Paxton’s Favor
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On October 27, 2026, former President Donald Trump will hold rallies in Lubbock and Waco, Texas, to campaign for Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee. The stops come a week before Election Day (Nov. 3) and follow Trump’s earlier appearances in Dallas and San Antonio.
Background & Context
Ken Paxton beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May Republican primary runoff and secured Trump’s endorsement. Democratic challenger State Rep. James Talarico seeks the first statewide Democratic win in Texas since 1994. Recent polls show a competitive environment, prompting both parties to pour resources into the race.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Early voting period | Oct. 5 – Oct. 30 | Date Ledger |
| CBS News/YouGov poll (Oct. 8-16) | Talarico 51 % – Paxton 49 % (±3.5) | CBS News |
| Marist survey (Oct. 8-11) | Talarico 47 % – Paxton 45 % | Newsweek |
| Fundraising Q3 2026 | Talarico > $64 M; Paxton + $18 M | Newsweek |
| Super-PAC spending | Elon Musk $158 M to GOP Senate Leadership Fund; MAGA Inc. $10 M (Sept.) | The Hill, Newsweek |
| Suburban donor totals (19 counties) | Talarico $2.6 M from ~10,200 donors; Paxton $1.1 M from ~2,600 donors | Newsweek |
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump said Paxton’s poll numbers have risen sharply after his rallies: “Ken Paxton’s gone way up in the poll.”
- Nick Maddux, Paxton’s senior adviser, dismissed a leaked audio recording of Paxton complaining about the Dallas convention, calling it “manipulated nonsense.”
- Talarico’s campaign highlighted the $64 million fundraising haul, noting “Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas.”
Criticism & Opposition
- Mark Aponte, a Trump-aligned voter, expressed ambivalence: “I’ll be honest, I don’t think he’s the best representation, but he’s the best one we are being offered right now.”
- Some GOP operatives warned that Trump’s presence could backfire, citing his slipping approval rating and voter fatigue with “name-calling.”
On-the-Ground Reports
When Talarico fell ill with the flu in early October, Paxton’s campaign circulated “proof of life” posters that Trump later mocked at a San Antonio event. Talarico returned on October 9 and held his own rally in Lubbock the same evening as Trump’s stop. Local observers note both candidates are courting independents and Latino voters.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling presents mixed signals:
- University of Texas/YouGov and Emerson College surveys show Talarico ahead by three points.
- Marist and InsiderAdvantage surveys taken after the San Antonio rally indicate a narrow Paxton lead (49 % vs. 48 %).
- Trafalgar Group, a Republican-aligned pollster, reported a widening Talarico lead (from 1 pt to 4 pts).
Margins of error (? 3 pts) overlap, leaving the true state of the race uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If Paxton doesn't do better than he's doing right now in the suburban areas, he may very well lose,” — Mark Jones, Rice University
- “Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas,” — James Talarico
- “Ken Paxton's gone way up in the poll,” — Donald Trump
What’s Next
- October 27: Trump rallies in Lubbock (2:30 p.m.) and Waco (6 p.m.).
- Early voting continues through October 30.
- November 3: Election Day.
The final weeks will test whether Trump’s visits can translate into turnout sufficient to offset Paxton’s legal controversies and Talarico’s fundraising edge.