Full Breakdown
Ottawa Mayoral Race Narrows as New Survey Shows Incumbent Lead Shrinks
By Drooid · · How we work
Survey Shows Tightening Race
A recent opinion poll conducted by Quorus Consulting Group indicates that incumbent mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s advantage over city councillor Jeff Leiper has narrowed to a single-digit margin. The online survey, fielded in early October, sampled 807 Ottawa residents selected from an online panel. While 28 % of all respondents favored Sutcliffe and 24 % chose Leiper, one-third of participants either did not know, would not vote, or declined to answer. Among voters who expressed a clear preference, Sutcliffe leads 42 % to Leiper’s 35 %, a seven-point gap.
Candidate Support Levels
- Mark Sutcliffe (incumbent) – 28 % overall, 42 % among decided voters.
- Jeff Leiper (city councillor) – 24 % overall, 35 % among decided voters.
- Neil Saravanamuttoo – 7 % overall, 10 % among decided voters.
- Alex Lawson – 4 % overall, 7 % among decided voters.
Four other respondents indicated support for candidates outside the four leading contenders, and 10 % reported having already cast an advance ballot. The field comprises 14 declared mayoral candidates.
Voter Priorities
When asked which issue most influences their vote, respondents highlighted:
- Housing, affordability and cost of living – 20 %
- Transit – 15 %
- Taxes, budgets and fiscal management – 12 %
- Competence, leadership and integrity – 11 %
- Roads, infrastructure and traffic – 10 %
- Crime, public safety and policing – 3 %
These rankings reflect the issues that respondents say will guide their decisions in the upcoming election.
Official Statements & Responses
He added that the remaining lead is still sizable enough that re-election is expected. Anderson also clarified that Quorus is an independent market-research firm with no affiliation to any campaign, and that the poll’s weighting aligns with census data on gender and age.
Verbatim Quotes
- “People have gotten more engaged and the big lead that Mark Sutcliffe had has shrunk considerably,” — Doug Anderson, executive
The survey’s tighter margins suggest a more competitive mayoral contest as Ottawa voters head toward election day, with housing affordability emerging as the top issue shaping the race.