UN Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report: New Warming Projections and the Scale of Needed Cuts

On October 21, 2026 the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its *Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return*. The assessment projects that, under current national policies, global average temperature could rise 2.8 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Even if every country fully implements its existing climate pledges, warming would still reach 2.6 °C. The report also outlines a “lowest-possible” overshoot pathway that would limit peak warming to 1.7 °C–1.8 °C by mid-century, with roughly a 50 % chance of returning to 1.5 °C or lower by 2100 if emissions are sharply reduced.

UN warns global warming could reach 1.8°C by mid-century even in best-case scenario Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says The IndependentThe Straits TimesNew Scientist

The analysis follows the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set the dual goal of keeping warming “well below 2 °C” and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. UNEP notes that the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris process and revised historical-emissions estimates have pushed projected warming higher than in the 2025 report. New nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted since the previous assessment have made “virtually no difference” to the outlook.

The Independent

• Emission-reduction targets needed (relative to 2025 levels):

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• 18 % by 2030

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• 45 % by 2035

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• 69 % by 2040

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• Projected cuts from current NDCs:

The Independent

• 5 %–8 % by 2030

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• 11 %–15 % by 2035

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• Energy-mix changes for the lowest-overshoot scenario (by 2035, relative to 2025):

New Scientist

• Coal share ? >= 55 %

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• Oil share ? 15 %

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• Gas share ? 5 %

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

By 2040 the reductions would need to reach 75 %, 30 % and 35 % respectively.

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that each additional fraction of a degree and each extra year above the threshold increase the risk of floods, heatwaves, wildfires and other climate-related disasters. She called for “pulling out all the stops” to accelerate deep, sustained emissions reductions and to scale up renewable energy, energy-efficiency improvements, and forest protection.

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says

• Some sources state that meeting all current NDCs plus additional net-zero targets would limit warming to 2.1 °C by century’s end, while others cite 2.6 °C under full pledge implementation.

The Independent

• The report projects a 50 % chance of returning to 1.5 °C by 2100 under the lowest-overshoot scenario, but the technical and economic feasibility of the large-scale carbon-removal required remains uncertain.

UN warns global warming could reach 1.8°C by mid-century even in best-case scenario

• “Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” — UN Secretary-General António Guterres

New Scientist

• “We don’t know whether we can overshoot,” — Bob Watson

New Scientist

UNEP notes that the next Global Stocktake will begin next month at COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, where parties are expected to refine targets for 2035 and 2040. The outcome will shape how closely nations can align policy with the emission-reduction pathways outlined in the report.

Global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, UN report says