Full Breakdown
The 2026 Israeli Election: Mainstream Parties Align with the Far-Right on Palestinian Policy
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Since the Hamas attacks of October 7 2023, Israel’s politics have shifted sharply right. The coalition formed after the November 2022 election—led by Likud (32 seats) and supported by Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Religious Zionism alliance—became the most right-wing government in Israeli history. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) controls civilian affairs in the West Bank, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) oversees the police. Their influence persisted despite reshuffles, including Ben-Gvir’s brief exit over a Gaza ceasefire in January 2025 and United Torah Judaism’s withdrawal in July 2025 over draft-exemption legislation.
Core Legislative Trends Affecting Palestinians
Al Jazeera’s analysis of the ten most consequential Knesset votes between July 2024 and March 2026 shows a near-uniform alignment of mainstream parties with the far-right on Palestinian issues:
- February 2024 – Cabinet statement rejecting unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state passed 99-11.
- July 2024 – Resolution labeling a Palestinian state an “existential danger” passed 68-9.
- October 2024 & January 2025 – Bills banning UNRWA from Israeli-controlled territory passed 92-10 and 87-9.
These votes illustrate that, on statehood, aid and settlement policy, the traditional left-right divide has largely collapsed, with government and opposition parties voting alongside the far-right bloc.
Data & Statistics
- Support for a two-state solution fell from 35 % in early 2023 to 17 % in 2026, the first time a majority say coexistence is impossible.
- A *Yedioth Ahronoth* poll found over 16 % of first-time voters intend to back a far-right party.
- The Israel Democracy Institute’s July 2026 survey reported about one-third of Jewish respondents oppose Arab citizens’ right to vote; among supporters of Netanyahu’s coalition parties the figure rises to ?55 %.
Why It Matters
The UNRWA bans, effective January 2025, have been warned by the United Nations and several Western governments to “cripple aid operations” for nearly six million registered refugees. Domestically, the erosion of two-state support narrows the policy space for any negotiated settlement, while the growing right-wing electorate reinforces a climate that prioritises annexation and settlement expansion.
Official Statements & Responses
- Bezalel Smotrich has used his authority over West Bank civilian affairs to push settlement planning and annexation proposals, while defending draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students.
Criticism & Opposition
Palestinian-citizen activists warn that the far-right’s dominance threatens security and civil rights. The Israel Democracy Institute’s survey shows a sizable portion of the Jewish electorate opposing Arab voting rights, underscoring pressure on Palestinian citizens to either legitimize a marginalising system or abstain.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Vote tallies for the UNRWA bans are consistently reported (92-10 and 87-9), but data on the actual impact on service delivery after January 2025 is lacking. Polls differ on the exact share of first-time voters supporting far-right parties, leaving the precise magnitude of the youth shift ambiguous.
What’s Next
Israel’s 26th Knesset election is scheduled for October 27 2026. The outcome will determine whether the current right-wing coalition retains a governing majority or a fragmented parliament forces a coalition that must accommodate Arab parties. The tight polling margins and the pivotal role of first-time voters will shape Israel’s policy trajectory on the Palestinian issue.