Full Breakdown
Toronto Mayoral Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Dead Heat
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Recent Polling
A recent survey by Liaison Strategies indicates that former city councillor Brad Bradford and incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow are virtually tied in the race for Toronto’s mayoralty. The poll, conducted among decided and leaning voters, places Bradford at 49 percent support and Chow at 47 percent, with three percent favoring other candidates. This is the first poll from the firm to suggest Bradford has edged ahead of Chow, although the firm’s principal notes the margin falls within the poll’s error range. An earlier interactive-voice-response poll of 1,000 residents, taken the week before, showed Chow leading 51 percent to 46 percent, also within a ±3.1-point margin of error.
Data & Statistics
Official Statements & Responses
Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin described the results as “a statistical dead heat,” emphasizing that the lead is not statistically significant. Bradford, speaking in Etobicoke, reiterated his intention to increase the number of police officers during the next council term. Chow, campaigning in the Dovercourt Village neighbourhood, highlighted endorsements from filmmaker Sarah Polley and musician Leslie Feist.
Verbatim Quote
- “The race is a statistical dead heat,” — David Valentin, Liaison Strategies principal
Why It Matters
The near-tie underscores a highly competitive mayoral contest as election day approaches, with both candidates courting key endorsements and policy platforms. The poll’s narrow margins suggest that voter sentiment remains fluid, and the final outcome may hinge on undecided voters and turnout dynamics.
