Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets to Historic Low as 2026 Midterms Loom
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Record-Low Approval Ahead of Midterms
Multiple recent polls show President Donald Trump’s approval rating hovering in the low-30s, the lowest level for any sitting U.S. president before a midterm election. A New York Times–Siena University poll reported 34 percent approval among registered voters, while a Guardian survey of likely voters placed his overall approval at 36 percent. An NBC News Decision Desk poll found 34 percent approval among U.S. adults and 39 percent among registered voters. CNN’s SSRS poll recorded a historic low of 32 percent, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by Al Jazeera indicated only 31 percent of respondents were “happy” with Trump’s performance. These figures contrast sharply with the 70-plus percent approval Trump enjoyed early in his second term.
Background & Context: Economic Strain and the Iran Conflict
The decline in Trump’s popularity coincides with rising living-cost pressures that voters cite as their top concern. Gasoline prices have surged above $4.25 per gallon, and inflation rose to 3.7 percent year-over-year. The ongoing war with Iran, launched earlier this year, has been linked by analysts to higher fuel costs and broader economic anxiety. Survey respondents repeatedly disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, cost of living, and the Iran war, with disapproval rates ranging from 64 percent to 73 percent on specific issues.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polls differ on the exact approval level, ranging from 31 percent to 36 percent. Some surveys separate overall adult approval from registered-voter approval, producing slightly higher figures for the latter (e.g., NBC’s 39 percent). Disapproval percentages also vary, with the Guardian reporting 59 percent overall disapproval, while USA Today notes 66 percent. No source provides a unified national “generic congressional ballot” figure, leaving a gap in understanding how these approval numbers translate into voter intent for congressional races.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump has dismissed the low approval numbers as temporary and emphasized his continued support among the Republican base. Party officials note the challenge of balancing enthusiasm among core supporters with the need to appeal to broader electorates dissatisfied with the administration’s economic policies.
What’s Next
The upcoming midterm election will serve as the decisive test of how Trump’s historic low approval translates into congressional outcomes. Early-voting has begun in some locations, and voter turnout projections remain uncertain. Analysts note that while presidential approval typically dips before midterms, the current sub-50 percent ratings are historically low and correlate with larger seat losses for the governing party in past elections. The final composition of the 118th Congress, set to convene in January 2027, will depend on whether Democratic gains materialize as projected and whether Republican voters turn out in sufficient numbers despite waning enthusiasm.