Full Breakdown
Arch Manning’s Texas Season at a Crossroads
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Texas Longhorns senior quarterback Arch Manning has seen his draft stock wobble amid a two-game losing streak that dropped the team from the top of the AP poll to a 4-2 record. After back-to-back 27-24 defeats to Oklahoma and Florida, head coach Steve Sarkisian said the program will “evaluate everything,” including Manning’s role, as the Longhorns prepare to host No. 7 Ole Miss.
Background & Context
Manning entered Texas as the nation’s top recruit in the 2023 class and the grandson of Hall of Famer Archie Manning. He was projected as a Heisman contender and a potential first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Last season (2025) he threw for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores.
Data & Statistics
- Passing yards this season: 1,295 (11th in the SEC)
- Touchdowns: 11 (9th in the SEC)
- Interceptions: 5 (SEC-wide)
- Completion percentage: 63.9% (10th in the SEC)
- Sacked 17 times; protection tied for 11th most sacks in the conference
- Pro Football Focus grade for Week 7: 43.3 (117th-best quarterback nationally)
Official Statements & Responses
Sarkisian reiterated that Manning remains the starter but emphasized the need for improvement, saying the team must “get it out of him.” He also noted that backup K.J. Lacey Jr. will continue to receive first-team practice reps, describing the approach as routine.
Criticism & Opposition
Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky urged Manning to “definitely not at Texas.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Draft projections vary. An unnamed NFL scout told USA Today Sports that Manning is a “third or fourth-round” prospect with concerns about decision-making and arm strength. Other analysts cited in CBS Sports still list him among the top prospects for 2027, highlighting his physical tools and pedigree. No consensus exists on whether his stock will rise with a late-season surge or continue to slip.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There’s no doubt about it, Arch can play better for us, but he’s our starter,” — Steve Sarkisian
- “If Arch goes back to school, and the reality is he probably should go back to school, I don’t think he should go back to Texas if Sark is the coach,” — Pete Prisco
- “I think this team’s built for adversity,” — Arch Manning
What’s Next
Texas will host Ole Miss in Austin next Saturday. ESPN sources report the coaching staff plans to increase first-team reps for redshirt freshman K.J. Lacey Jr. during the week, signaling a possible quarterback change if Manning’s performance does not improve. Sarkisian has called the upcoming game a “test” for both the offense and Manning’s development. The outcome will influence whether Texas pursues a playoff berth or begins to consider a transfer or draft decision for Manning after the season.