Story perspectives

Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 1%

By Drooid · Oct 21, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Poll

Flávio Bolsonaro leads a narrow poll over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The Quaest poll on Oct. 21 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s five-day workweek proposal boosted his poll numbers, leading Flávio Bolsonaro to endorse it.
Allegations link Flávio Bolsonaro to a €10 million donation from Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro.

Summary

Quaest poll released

Quaest released its first poll after the October 18 debate, surveying 2,154 people.
Nexus poll, commissioned by BTG Pactual, surveyed 2,002 respondents from October 16-18 with a 2-point margin.
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll sampled 4,998 people between October 13-18, reporting a 1-point margin of error.
All three surveys overlapped the campaign, capturing voter sentiment after the debate and before the runoff.

History

Historical Context

In October 1994 Brazil held a presidential election under the 1988 constitution, pitting Finance Minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso against former labor leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Cardoso’s backing of the Plano Real helped him win 54% of the vote—a 27-point margin and the largest landslide. That result showed parties how early poll shifts could reshape campaigns, a lesson echoed in today’s razor-thin 2026 race.

1 of 3

Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Poll

Flávio Bolsonaro leads a narrow poll over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The Quaest poll on Oct. 21 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s five-day workweek proposal boosted his poll numbers, leading Flávio Bolsonaro to endorse it.
Allegations link Flávio Bolsonaro to a €10 million donation from Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro.

1 / 3