Full Breakdown
UNEP Emissions Gap Report Warns Global Climate Pledges Are Far Too Small
By Drooid · · How we work
UNEP Report Highlights a Widening Emissions Gap
The United Nations Environment Programme’s annual Emissions Gap Report, released on Wednesday, finds that even if every country fully implements its latest climate pledges, the world is still on track for a 2.6 °C rise above pre-industrial levels by 2100. That would exceed the 2015 Paris Agreement target of keeping warming “well below 2 °C” and pursuing 1.5 °C. The report notes that 2025 global greenhouse-gas emissions were essentially unchanged from the 2024 record level, with coal, oil and gas emissions edging higher.
Emissions Trends Among the G20 and Top Emitters
The G20, responsible for roughly 75 % of worldwide emissions, showed a modest slowdown in overall growth, but the United States stood out as a “major exception.” Preliminary 2025 data recorded a rise of 133 megatonnes CO2-equivalent for the United States—the largest increase among the group—driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal generation. Indonesia and China also posted increases, while India, Russia and the European Union reported declines. Turkey recorded the next-largest rise and will host the UN climate summit in Antalya from November 9 to 20. The report stresses that limiting overshoot beyond 1.5 °C requires adding 5,000 gigawatts of renewable capacity within the next five years.
Official Reactions
UNEP Executive Secretary Inger Andersen told AFP that while every nation bears a duty to phase down emissions, the current trajectory would lead to 2.8 °C warming by century’s end if policies remain unchanged. She called the need for rapid cuts an “urgent to-do item.” U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed climate change as a hoax and rolled back clean-energy policies while expanding fossil-fuel production.
Criticism from Climate Advocates
Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa, described the report’s findings as a “historic failure of political leadership,” arguing that governments have chosen delay over action and that the human toll will be measured in lives lost rather than degrees of warming.
Outlook for COP31
The emissions shortfall sets the stage for a contentious COP31 summit in Antalya, where negotiators are expected to clash over how to reconcile national interests with the urgent need to keep warming below 1.5 °C. The UNEP scenario that offers a 50 % chance of returning to 1.5 °C by 2100 hinges on immediate annual cuts of 6 % through 2035—far steeper than current projections.