Trump’s Plummeting Approval Fuels Republican Uncertainty Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

Polls released in October 2026 show President Donald Trump’s job-approval rating between 32 % and 36 %, the lowest of his terms. A majority of voters view the November election as a referendum on Trump’s agenda, putting Republican candidates on a steep uphill battle to retain control of the House and Senate.

NPR

Trump won the White House in 2024 with a solid Republican majority in Congress, but the 2025-26 period has been marked by rising inflation, high fuel prices, and an ongoing war with Iran. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections, a pattern analysts expect to repeat given current disapproval levels.

Two Weeks Out, Republicans Can’t Hope For Much in the Midterms

• Approval ratings: NPR’s Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll (Oct 13-19) reports 34 % approval and 62 % disapproval; CNN/SSRS poll shows 32 % approval; The New York Times/Siena poll records 36 % approval.

Politico

• Voter preference on congressional candidates: NPR finds 52 % would choose a Democrat versus 41 % for a Republican; CNN reports a 49 %–39 % split; The New York Times poll shows a similar 11-point Democratic lead.

NPR

• Issue importance: 63 % rank prices and inflation among their top three concerns; 47 % of likely voters say the economy is their primary issue, with Democrats holding a 47-35 advantage.

NPR

• Campaign spending: AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising for the 2025-26 midterm cycle, a $400 million increase over the 2023-24 presidential cycle.

Council on Foreign Relations

The Bloomberg briefing attributes the Democratic surge in competitive districts to “big dissatisfaction with Trump” and notes a $277 million outlay by Trump’s MAGA Inc super PAC aimed at salvaging Republican chances in key Senate races.

The Straits Times

Maria Di Franco Quinonez, senior research director at Equis, says the decline in Latino support reflects “a huge driver…big dissatisfaction with Trump.” Amy Frederiksen, former Republican Minnesota Senate majority leader, notes that “the trust on this is already gone for most people,” echoing skepticism about the president’s promises, including proposed $5,000 voter checks.

Bloomberg

• “Trump's ratings hit new lows on seven of the 10 issues we've tracked since May 2025, from jobs and trade to immigration and border security, and he's now underwater on every issue we ask about,” — G. Elliott Morris

NPR

• “A huge driver of this is just the big dissatisfaction with Trump,” — Maria Di Franco Quinonez

Bloomberg

• “The trust on this is already gone for most people,” — Amy Frederiksen

Associated Press

Polls differ on the magnitude of disapproval. NPR records a 62 % disapproval rate, while CNN shows 68 % disapproval on economic issues and 64 % on inflation, without an overall figure. Voter-preference margins also vary, with NPR’s 11-point Democratic lead (52 %-41 %) versus CNN’s 10-point advantage (49 %-39 %).

CNN

The November election will decide whether Republicans can overcome the approval crisis and retain congressional majorities. If Democrats secure a majority, the new Congress will convene on January 3, 2027, controlling the Speaker’s seat, committee chairs, and the legislative agenda, and shaping the 2028 presidential cycle, especially among swing demographics such as Latino and younger voters.

Council on Foreign Relations