Full Breakdown
Kerala Faces Orange Rain Alerts as Low-Pressure Systems Fuel Heavy Showers
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Core Event: Orange Alerts Issued for Five Southern Districts
On October 21 the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an orange alert for the Kerala districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and Kottayam, warning of very heavy rainfall within the next 24 hours. A second orange alert followed on October 22 for Ernakulam, Thrissur, Malappuram and Kozhikode, while the remaining districts were placed on a yellow alert for isolated heavy rain. The alerts coincide with low-pressure areas over the southwest Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, sustaining moisture inflow toward the state.
Background & Context: Competing Weather Systems
The IMD attributes the wet spell to a cyclonic circulation that formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Tamil Nadu coast on October 19. A second circulation over the Gulf of Thailand is expected to move into the north Andaman Sea, and a new low-pressure area is forecast to emerge over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 23. Both systems are projected to move northwestward, potentially intensifying the moisture supply to peninsular India. An additional low-pressure area over the southwest Arabian Sea, first noted on October 18, may marginally intensify into a depression within 24 hours, though its immediate impact on Kerala is expected to be limited.
Official Statements & Responses
- The IMD’s bulletin (issued October 21) warned that the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal will maintain “moisture influx” and generate “isolated to very heavy thunderstorms” across the ghat regions and the southern half of the state.
- The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) announced that precautionary sirens would be activated in the orange-alert districts on the evening of October 21.
- The IMD also advised fishing vessels to avoid the Kerala-Lakshadweep coastline from October 21 to October 25, extending the warning to the Arabian Sea coast from October 22 to October 24.
On-the-Ground Reports
Local observations on October 21 confirmed intense thunderstorms, frequent lightning and gusty winds across the affected districts. Residents in the orange-alert zones reported waterlogging in low-lying areas and temporary disruptions to road traffic.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All sources consistently describe the orange alerts and the associated rainfall forecasts; no substantive discrepancies were identified regarding the timing or severity of the warnings. However, the precise intensity of the forthcoming low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal (expected October 23) remains uncertain, with the IMD and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts offering differing assessments of its potential development.
What’s Next: Forecast Through Late October
- October 23–25: The IMD expects the southeast Bay of Bengal low-pressure area to strengthen, potentially enhancing rainfall over Kerala and neighboring states.
- October 24–25: Very heavy rainfall is forecast for Kerala and Mahe, while Lakshadweep may experience similar conditions.
- October 26: Isolated heavy showers are likely to continue across Kerala and Mahe.
- October 28: The IMD’s numerical model indicates that the circulation over the Bay of Bengal could intensify by a few notches, though the impact on Kerala’s rainfall remains to be seen.
The combination of multiple low-pressure systems and the issuance of orange alerts underscores a sustained period of heavy rain for Kerala, prompting continued vigilance from authorities and residents alike.