Full Breakdown
Canada-Turkey Strategic Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s First Bilateral Visit
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – A Three-Day Ankara-Istanbul Mission
On October 22 Prime Minister Mark Carney met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, the first dedicated bilateral visit by a Canadian prime minister to Turkey. The itinerary included meetings with Turkish business leaders in Istanbul and a planned signing of a joint declaration covering defence, energy, trade and people-to-people ties. The trip is framed as a cornerstone of Carney’s effort to diversify Canada’s export base away from the United States.
Background & Context – From Arms Embargo to Trade-Diversification Drive
Canada’s trade remains heavily weighted toward the United States (about 70 % of exports). Since taking office, Carney has pursued a “middle-power” strategy that includes more than 20 trade agreements and a public goal to double non-U.S. exports within a decade. In 2024 Canada lifted a de-facto arms embargo that had restricted optical-technology components for Turkish drones, a move intended to thaw ties after earlier bans linked to the Syrian and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.
Formal free-trade negotiations were launched at the NATO summit on July 7, when Carney and Erdogan announced the intent to negotiate a comprehensive agreement. The current visit seeks to move those talks forward while exploring cooperation in aerospace, defence, nuclear energy, mining and high-tech agriculture.
Data & Statistics – Trade at a Glance
- Turkey accounts for less than 0.3 % of Canada’s merchandise trade, amounting to C$4.3 billion (? US$3.1 billion).
- Bilateral trade has risen by nearly 50 % over the past five years.
- Canadian exports to Turkey include lentils, aircraft and electronics; imports feature medical devices, fishing vessels, aircraft engines and jewelry.
Official Statements & Responses – Pragmatic Partnership Framed in Values-Based Realism
A Canadian official described the approach as “values-based realism,” emphasizing principled commitments to freedom, human rights and sustainability while remaining pragmatic about partners that do not share all values.
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said nuclear power, including potential purchases of Canadian liquefied natural gas and critical minerals, would be a top agenda item. A working group is expected to assess the feasibility of a CANDU reactor project on Turkey’s Black Sea coast, involving Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRéalis and other partners.
The Turkish presidency and Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the specific contents of the forthcoming declaration.
Criticism & Opposition – Human-Rights Concerns
International observers, including Human Rights Watch and United Nations experts, have condemned recent Turkish police raids on LGBTQ + and HIV-advocacy groups. Canada did not join a joint European statement denouncing those actions, and senior officials declined to confirm whether the issue would be raised privately with President Erdogan.
Political scientist Bessma Momani noted that while Turkey offers “industrial and consumer powerhouse” opportunities, its reliance on Russian and Iranian energy creates a strategic vulnerability that Canada could help address.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Trade Figures and Deal Details
Sources differ on the exact value of bilateral trade, citing C$4.3 billion versus C$4.34 billion. Neither outlet provided a definitive breakdown of upcoming agreements, and both Turkish and Canadian officials declined to confirm which, if any, specific contracts will be signed during the visit. The lack of publicly disclosed details leaves the concrete economic impact of the trip uncertain.